Meanwhile, "national housing growth continues to cool" with annual home price growth in December slowing to just 0.9%, "one of the softest rates since the post-Great Recession recovery," according to research firm Cotality. And as of January 2026, homes are spending a median 78 days on the market, the longest time in six years, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
"If potential borrowers are looking to take the plunge into homeownership, the time might be now. Prices are holding steady for the first time in years and even going down in some markets, as listed properties remain on the market longer than expected," says Michael Pearson, SVP of business development at A&D Mortgage.
It's signs like these that have pros saying that while now likely isn't the "best" time to buy, it could be a better time than we've seen of late. Here are some of the signs that 2026 may be a good time to buy -- and some of the signs that it won't.
Reasons 2026 might be a decent year to buy
Mortgage rates are stable (and potentially dropping)
"Mortgage rates are expected to stay stable or lower a little bit," says Corey Vandenberg, mortgage loan officer at Lake State Mortgage. "This gives you a window of the lowest rates in years and the assurance that they will stick around instead of going up drastically."
Fannie Mae's housing forecast for January 2026 reveals the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is predicted to be 6% for most of 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 42% probability of a quarter-point cut by the Fed in July, which could have some impact on mortgage rates.
A number of homes are sitting on the market -- so buyers can demand concessions
"There are homes on the market, not being bought, that allow you to bargain and get sellers' concessions again. These didn't happen when it was a seller's market and houses were being overbid on," says Vandenberg.
Some of the most common seller concessions include covering a portion of closing costs; paying for title insurance, loan origination fees or mortgage rate buy downs; and offering repair credits. Some sellers will pay for yearlong home warranties or cover property taxes, homeowners insurance or HOA dues for a specified period.
Saving on closing costs seems to be one of the more popular concessions. "Sellers are more willing to give concessions towards closing costs. You can use these credits to buy down an interest rate even further. Many sellers realize rates are higher than in the hot days around Covid and home affordability is very challenging with these rates. Combine that with higher insurance costs and sellers realize giving a credit may be a better option than reducing sales price," says Jeremy Schachter, branch manager at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation.
While lenders dictate origination and processing fees, which help determine a home's total closing costs, additional fees from third-party services like appraisers, inspectors and title companies are also included in the grand total which can be negotiated between buyer and seller.
Some markets are seeing home prices falling
"Even if rates remain relatively flat, the demand for mobility [having the choice/opportunity to move instead of being locked in], along with the huge amount of acquired equity in real estate will likely lead to a good year for real estate," says Michael Pearson, SVP of business development at A&D Mortgage. "If potential borrowers are looking to take the plunge into homeownership, the time might be now. Prices are holding steady for the first time in years and even going down in some markets as listed properties remain on the market longer than expected."
Buyers can lock in long-term value
"This year presents a promising entry point for homebuyers focused on long-term value and those who put down roots in emerging neighborhoods can see meaningful appreciation over time," says Sarah Rodriguez, vice president of new development at James Sotheby's International Realty.
There's a changing mortgage lock-in effect
"The longstanding mortgage lock-in effect is finally changing," says agent Kirk Eckenrode from CE Group of Howard Hanna NYC. "Now, more homeowners carry mortgage rates above 6% than those with ultralow sub-3% loans. As today's rate environment becomes a new norm and expectations build around potential policy moves that could push rates even lower, buyers who act now could get value before a renewed wave of competition and pricing pressure returns."
Reasons 2026 might not be a good year to buy
Sometimes costs like insurance are a barrier
This year could be an unpredictable year, economically speaking, pros say. "It seems every day there is some new surprise in the economy. If rates remain high and other housing-related expenses like insurance remain historically expensive, that may push additional purchasers out of the market," says Pearson.
Average homeowners insurance policies are skyrocketing amid climate-related disasters like fires, floods, hail and hurricanes along with high rebuilding costs, especially in places like California, Florida, Louisiana, Iowa and Michigan.
September 2025 data from Intercontinental Exchange Mortgage Technology revealed that in California alone, premiums increased 19.5% last year. What's more, they note that insurance has outpaced mortgage principal, interest and property tax payment gains, rising 4.9% in 2025. "Property insurance costs continue to be the fastest-growing subcomponent of mortgage payments among existing homeowners," says Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE.
This won't be like the prepandemic housing market
While looking to the past can sometimes offer clarity on cyclical markets, unfortunately, hindsight doesn't help here. "Pandemic prices and rates are likely not to come back. I always compare it to $1 gasoline; we all love to talk about back in the day but guess what? It’s not coming back. We need to deal with what it is now or go without it; same is true of housing. Too many people are waiting for good old days that were created by global pandemic when they didn’t buy," says Vandenberg.
The smart way to think about buying a home
"The right time to buy is when you find a home that suits your needs and your budget," says agent Kate Wollman-Mahan of Coldwell Banker Warburg, who notes that you'll also want to secure a fair price for the home that you may want to live in for five to ten years or more to recoup closing costs.
If you are looking for a home, "if your goal is stability instead of trying to find the perfect deal, 2026 can be a good year to buy. Focus on what you can control: the total payment, seller concessions, negotiations and whether the home fits into your five- to seven-year plan," says Levi Rodgers, co-founder at VA Loan Network.