KYIV -- A wave of massive Russian attacks is pushing Ukraine's energy grid to the brink of collapse, according to officials and analysts familiar with the situation, as Moscow aims to demoralize the country and the White House pressures Kyiv to sign a peace deal.
The string of Russian drone and missile attacks targeting energy infrastructure started in October and has since triggered major power shortages across the country as the cold of winter sets in.
The strikes threaten to completely disable transmission systems that move electricity from west -- where most of Ukraine's electricity is currently being produced -- to east, which would effectively split the country in two, said several people familiar with the crisis.
"We are, if not at the brink" of a complete blackout in the east of the country "then very close to it," said a senior European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Experts agree it is nearly impossible to predict exactly how many attacks it would take for Russia to succeed in its goal of total blackout for part of the country, including Kyiv, because it will depend on what targets are hit and whether Ukraine has the backup supplies to make quick repairs.
Still, Ukraine, which has long suffered from energy attacks, is certainly in one of its worst positions yet. The bombing campaign has also weakened the already limited air defense capabilities, exposing major vulnerabilities that could make it harder to defend the remainder of the grid.
In Kyiv, residents are already going up to 16 hours per day without power and businesses are running largely on generators.
One solution proposed by Kyiv could be an energy ceasefire, in which Russia would halt its attacks on energy infrastructure and Ukraine end its long-range attacks on Russia oil and gas infrastructure. On Thursday and Friday, Ukraine's security services said Ukrainian drones attacked and shut down a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea.
Moscow said last week, however, that it would be unwilling to consider such a measure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is working toward "peace, not a ceasefire."
"For weeks now, I've been publicly calling to offer Russians a negotiated energy truce," said Ukrainian lawmaker Victoria Gryb, who serves on parliament's energy committee. "Such a step, if all necessary diplomatic efforts are urgently and persistently made, would make winter perspectives a bit less pessimistic. It could also represent a vital first step toward genuine peace."
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists that he was "ready" for an energy ceasefire, but that "the United States believes we are close to an agreement," which only once implemented could lay the groundwork for a full ceasefire.
While hours of power outages, darkened streets and the roar of diesel generators are familiar occurrences in wartime Kyiv, this winter the attacks appear more consistent and targeted.
Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk said Russia has launched close to 5,000 drones and missiles in November, compared to 2,000 a month at the beginning of year, including hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles targeted at power plants, transmission grid and gas infrastructure, often focusing on a particular region.
"They have these strategic attacks," Kolisnyk said. "For example, in the end of November we had an attack on electricity generation in western part of Ukraine and it was massive. It was split between different type of facilities, substations, power generation -- there were a number of aims."
The aerial assaults are also more frequent, allowing for less time to repair the damage. In early December, power workers managed to reduce the time of power outages in Kyiv to 2½ hours per day, Kolisnyk said. But a major attack overnight on Dec. 5 critically damaged the grid again, and Kyiv’s power supply plummeted.
“We’re reacting as fast as we can but it’s getting more and more difficult,” said Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company. “We’ve lost a significant proportion of our capacity. A key focus now is to find replacement equipment in different parts of Europe which we can deliver to Ukraine quickly. The most important parts are transformers and gas compressors.”
In addition to splitting Ukraine’s power network in half, the Kremlin is also “pursuing another strategy to create [energy] islands,” said the European diplomat, in which individual regions would “be cut off from any electricity generation and electricity deliveries as well by the existing transmission system.”
Ukrainian regions on the front line or next to the Russian border suffer even more, officials say. “All day long the Russians are trying to strike energy facilities there, from the small to the big,” Kolisnyk said.
Valerii Osadchuk, head of communications at Ukraine's electricity grid operator Ukrenergo, said the attacks are also targeting the electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure. There are now restrictions on electricity throughout the country.
From October to December this year, Russia "launched eight massive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure," he said, and Russian attacks "on individual energy facilities or specific regions have been taking place almost every day."
Despite the steady attacks and what officials say appears to be a clear effort to break down electricity transmission between the two halves of the country, the grid is still holding.
"We are one step from a [full] blackout in Kyiv now," said one person familiar with the energy crisis.
But it took only two days to make major repairs during a total blackout in 2022. If Ukraine obtains the supplies to carry out fast repairs and Russia doesn't repeatedly bomb the same locations, fixes could happen quickly and it won't be "the end of the world," the person added, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss a sensitive topic.
"The situation could be much worse if not for the engineering efforts of Ukrenergo," said Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI in Kyiv, a think tank focusing on energy issues. Still, he said, power supply "will be unstable throughout the winter and even spring."
Even as Kremlin forces pound Ukrainian cities from the air, some Ukrainians say that they have grown accustomed to winters without electricity. Most importantly, they say, they will not be forced into accepting a potentially unjust peace agreement with Russia.
Tetiana Palienko, 43, a beautician living on the top floor of a residential building with her three children, said that in contrast to previous winters without power, “Connectivity is better now -- telephone connections and the internet work; everything functions.”
Last week, she threw a St. Nicholas Day party for her youngest daughter at her school.
But Karolina Machula, 19, an administrator at a boxing club, feels as if she is being worn down. She must climb 15 flights of stairs to her apartment when the elevator is not working, she said.
“It’s psychologically damaging: You laugh in order not to cry,” she said. “Our fridge short-circuited because it’s constantly being turned on and off. And when it’s turned off for a long time, all your produce spoils—you can’t buy anything.”
“I don’t want to leave the country at all. Never in my life. But Ukrainians are just surviving this year,” she said.