No. 15 Michigan meets USC at 7:30 p.m. at the LA Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, and it's somehow not the marquee matchup in the Big Ten.
No. 7 Indiana meets No. 3 Oregon in a top-10 matchup on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET. That is the best matchup given both teams are 5-0. That game between the Wolverines and Trojans, however, is the most-important game when it comes to the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff race.
In fact, you could argue it's the most-important game within the confines of this season for both schools.
Michigan has a game more important than Ohio State? If the Wolverines win at USC - the toughest road game left on the schedule - then it stands to reason Michigan could be 10-1 when it plays the Buckeyes in The Game. The Buckeyes likely will be no worse than 10-1. At that point, both teams are in the College Football Playoff. This is the new world we live in - the one where Ohio State lost to Michigan and won a national championship last season.
USC has a more important game than Notre Dame? Well, yeah, they are in the Big Ten now. A loss here would give the Trojans a second loss, and that would mean they need to sweep the Irish and Oregon to avoid a three-loss season.
Heading into Week 7, the Big Ten has five ranked teams in No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 7 Indiana, No. 15 Michigan and No. 17 Illinois. Nine teams have one loss or less, and we are projecting nine teams to finish 9-3 or better based on the remaining schedules.
We showed you the SEC yesterday - and we are projecting five 10-win teams out of that conference. In the Big Ten, we have three 10-win teams, and USC and Michigan are the most likely candidates to be that fourth team. The Big Ten put four teams in the CFP last year.
How does this Big Ten race shape up? Sporting News projects the rest of the Big Ten race among those nine schools.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Lowdown: The Buckeyes have allowed five points per game through five games, quarterback Julian Sayin has an 80.2% completion percentage, and Jeremiah Smith is among the Heisman Trophy front-runners. Ohio State should be double-digit favorites in almost every game, including Illinois (Oct. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 1).
Game that could throw this off: at Michigan (Nov. 29). Who else would it be? The Wolverines have a four-game winning streak in the rivalry, which continued in a 13-10 upset last season. Ohio State coach Ryan Day is 75-10 at Ohio State, but he's 1-4 against Michigan.
Projected finish: 12-0, 9-0 Big Ten
Oregon Ducks
Lowdown: The Ducks appear on a collision course with the Buckeyes for the Big Ten championship game under Dan Lanning. Oregon has the 30-24 overtime victory against Penn State in hand and can add to its resume against Indiana (Oct. 11). The Ducks do not have Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois on the regular-season schedule.
Game that could throw this off: vs. USC (Nov. 22). The Trojans are talented enough to beat the Ducks. Oregon won the last meeting 36-27 on Nov. 11, 2023. Oregon has won five of the last six meetings in the series.
Projected finish: 10-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers
Lowdown: We actually think the Hoosiers could get a split between road trips to Oregon (Oct. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 8), but for now both are being marked as losses. Indiana would likely be the third-best team in the Big Ten, and despite a flimsy non-conference schedule, that should be good enough to make the CFP.
Game that could throw this off: at Oregon (Oct. 11). What if the Hoosiers pull the upset here? That changes the dynamic of the Big Ten race in the other direction - meaning Indiana would be in the driver's seat toward a berth in the Big Ten championship game. Imagine second-year coach Curt Cignetti in that setting.
Projected finish: 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten
USC Trojans
Lowdown: The Trojans are favored against Michigan - but that's still a game the Wolverines can win. USC has a pair of two time-zone games at No. 16 Notre Dame (Oct. 18) and Nebraska (Nov. 1) along with a road trip to Oregon (Nov. 22). Iowa also visits The LA Coliseum (Nov. 15).
Game that could throw this off: at Nebraska (Nov. 1). USC beat Nebraska 28-20 last season, and the Huskers have improved under third-year coach Matt Rhule. Will the Trojans really sweep Michigan and Nebraska?
Projected finish: 9-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Michigan Wolverines
Lowdown: The Wolverines lost 24-13 at No. 6 Oklahoma on Sept. 6 - which puts the urgency on scoring a road win against a ranked opponent this week against USC. Then it's a quick-turnaround against Washington (Oct. 18). Of course, there is a chance to beat Ohio State (Nov. 29) for the fifth straight time in the regular-season finale.
Game that could throw this off: Michigan State (Oct. 25). Michigan could win four in a row against the Spartans. The Wolverines have not won back-to-back games at Spartan Stadium since 2005 and 2007 - and those games were decided by a combined total of seven points.
Projected finish: 9-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini
Lowdown: The Illini have a 63-10 loss at Indiana on Sept. 20, but that would be forgiven with a strong showing against Ohio State (Oct. 11). It's the biggest home game of the Bret Bielema era at Illinois. A road trip to Washington (Oct. 25) won't be easy either.
Game that could throw this off: at Wisconsin (Nov. 22). The Illini are 1-2 against the Badgers under Bret Bielema, albeit with a 34-10 victory at Camp Randall Stadium in 2022. It's the trap game in an otherwise friendly November schedule.
Projected finish: 9-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions
Lowdown: This is giving the Nittany Lions the benefit of the doubt at home against Indiana (Nov. 8). It’s on Penn State to have their signature moment at Ohio State (Nov. 1) in order to get back in the College Football Playoff picture. The Nittany Lions will have a hard time erasing the 42-37 loss to UCLA on Oct. 4.
Game that could throw this off: at Iowa (Oct. 18). Penn State has not been to Iowa since 2021, and the Hawkeyes won that game 23-20. It’s a prime-time game at Kinnick Stadium.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Lowdown: It’s about not slipping up against unranked teams. Nebraska could have another huge home game against USC (Nov. 1), part of a November run that also includes a trip to Penn State (Nov. 22) and the regular-season finale against Iowa (Nov. 28). The Hawkeyes won the last two meetings 13-10, and this would be a building-block victory for Matt Rhule.
Game that could throw this off: at Maryland (Oct. 11). This is exactly the kind of game we are talking about. The Terrapins are an improved team with quarterback Malik Washington - who has a 131.9 passer rating.
Washington Huskies
Lowdown: The Huskies play four of their last seven games at home, and the toughest remaining games are at Michigan (Oct. 18) - a 12 p.m. ET kickoff - and at home against Oregon (Nov. 29). The Ducks beat the Huskies 49-21 last season.
Game that could throw this off: vs. Illinois (Oct. 25). The Illini are capable of winning at Washington - and that is a key game for both teams if they are trying to get to the 10-win mark.