As the dust settles on days of high-stakes political drama in Westminster, Labour insiders from across the party have arrived at a similar conclusion: sell Wes Streeting, hold Keir Starmer and buy Angela Rayner.
The UK prime minister's position is seen as safe for the immediate future after every member of the cabinet publicly backed him to stay in his job on Monday, including Streeting. For good measure, Rayner -- who's no longer in the top team -- also did so.
But Labour's leadership crisis has only been deferred, party figures told Bloomberg, with one stressing the fundamentals about Starmer's prospects have not changed. All spoke on condition of anonymity while providing their views on how the party's leadership drama will pan out.
Their verdict is that while the heat may have come out of speculation about the premier's fate, it is not going away. The conversation in the party has turned to who may emerge stronger from a tumultuous few days which saw Starmer lose two senior aides and face a call to resign from his Scottish party leader, only to stabilize his position.
The prime minister, while relieved he got through a period that could easily have gone the other way and forced his resignation, is undoubtedly weaker than he was a week ago, one Labour Member of Parliament said. They attributed that to the public furor around his handling of the scandal involving his former US ambassador, Peter Mandelson, and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, as well as to the loss of his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, which they said left the premier exposed when the next crisis arrives.
Not long ago, Streeting had been the bookmakers' favorite to replace Starmer as prime minister. Now Rayner is the front-runner among bettors, with the health secretary drifting into second place. The former deputy prime minister, who resigned in a tax scandal last year, is also increasingly viewed in Labour as the leading contender to replace Starmer in the event of a contest this year, perhaps after a by-election later this month or May's local elections.
A supporter of Rayner said that she had shown concrete evidence that she holds sway over a significant parliamentary power base during a debate on a Conservative Party motion last week. Then, Rayner led calls from the Labour back benches for the government to be more transparent in its planned publication of messages between government officials and Mandelson.
Nevertheless, investors may balk at the idea of Rayner becoming the next prime minister. Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief economist at global financial services firm Ebury said "the risk of a leftist turn in the government, particularly under an Angela Rayner-led Labour Party, presents downside risks to the pound and British assets generally."
By maintaining her overall loyalty to Starmer and the Labour government, and not being overtly involved in any game-playing or media stories to further her own interests, Rayner had shown she represented a serious and good faith position in Labour politics, a supporter said.
That could be seen as a tacit criticism of Streeting, who by contrast has endured a difficult few days. The health secretary and his team have been forced to deny that he was personally close to Mandelson, that he coordinated with Sarwar over the Scottish Labour leader's Monday intervention, and that his allies had sought to persuade government ministers to resign in protest at Starmer's leadership. A supporter of Streeting said they strongly disagreed with Sarwar's decision to call for Starmer to go.
Getting ahead of the government's planned release of Mandelson-related communications, Streeting on Monday evening passed messages between himself and the former envoy to Sky News. That earned him a veiled rebuke from the Metropolitan Police who had urged the government not to do anything that could jeopardize its ongoing investigation into Mandelson's communications with Epstein.
Streeting's decision was described by some MPs as self-serving and an attempt to try to further his own interests. One said they were surprised the health secretary had indulged in such obvious leadership positioning and that he had not demonstrated more political acumen. He would have been better served by taking a leaf out of Rayner's book, they said.
Streeting's team did not respond to a request for comment. The health secretary himself told Sky's flagship political podcast on Monday that people should "give Keir a chance."
Streeting has accused Downing Street of briefing against him to the media, but one of the people supportive of Rayner said they didn't think that was the case and that in fact it was other members of the cabinet who were expressing their genuine frustrations with him.
Labour MPs suggested Starmer's operation could move to the left to further shore up his position, following remarks by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to broadcasters on Tuesday morning in which he said he expected the premier to do more to focus on Britain's "class divide."
That has raised the prospect of Starmer conducting a reshuffle to restore MPs from the so-called soft-left of the party, such as Rayner and Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, to the cabinet in an attempt to be more "inclusive" of views across the party. Moreover, whoever replaces McSweeney as chief of staff is likely to be to his left, one party figure said.
UK borrowing costs dipped on Tuesday as Starmer shored up his position and the risk of a sudden leadership change faded. Longer-dated bonds gained the most, with the 30-year yield falling four basis points to 5.31% after a sharp rise on Monday when it appeared that Starmer might be forced to step down. The 10-year yield declined by a similar amount to 4.50%.
It may not be long before the political volatility of recent days returns.