Why it matters: California is the ultimate paradox of Democratic rule. A state of immense wealth, innovation, and cultural power is increasingly unable to deliver the basics of housing, public safety, and disaster response.
The big picture: Those failures have been building for years.
- But COVID and last year's catastrophic fires have transformed long-simmering frustration with California governance into a visceral public indictment of the people running the state -- one now playing out in the races for governor and Los Angeles mayor.
State of play: In the governor's race, no Democrat has emerged as a credible heir to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), whose eight years in office will shadow his march to the White House.
- Former Biden Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, polling at just 4% as recently as April, is now the Democratic frontrunner after former Rep. Eric Swalwell abruptly quit the race over sexual assault allegations.
- Billionaire Tom Steyer is the unlikely progressive darling of the field, having spent at least $132 million of his own fortune to position himself as the most left-wing candidate in the race.
- Former Rep. Katie Porter, once a rising progressive star, has languished in single digits since viral footage resurfaced of her berating a staffer.
- San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, also stuck in single digits, has attracted a wave of Silicon Valley money from tech donors desperate for a viable alternative to the rest of the field.
Between the lines: Republicans remain massive underdogs statewide, but they have a plausible path to qualifying for California's top-two general election.
- Steve Hilton, the Trump-endorsed, British-born former Fox News host, is leading the divided field with a blunt message: one-party Democratic rule has destroyed the California Dream.
- Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, an immigration hardliner and former member of the far-right Oath Keepers militia, is MAGA in its purest form.
Zoom in: The chaos of the governor's race is matched only by the fury of the L.A. mayor's race, where incumbent Karen Bass is fighting for political survival in the wake of last January's devastating fires.
- Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, who blames Bass and city leaders for the destruction of his Pacific Palisades home, has become an unlikely avatar for anti-establishment rage.
- City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist challenging Bass from the left, argues that L.A.'s crises stem from a city government too timid and dysfunctional to build housing or deliver basic services.
The intrigue: Pratt's longshot campaign is riding a wave of viral momentum. His scathing attacks on city leadership -- rooted in the loss of his home in the fires -- resonate far beyond the usual boundaries of L.A. politics.
- Pratt, a registered Republican, has resisted partisan branding even as MAGA influencers embrace him as a symbol of revolt against Democratic governance.
- A surreal AI-generated ad reposted by Pratt -- depicting Bass in Joker makeup and Newsom as a cake-eating French aristocrat -- racked up millions of views and widespread praise from Republicans.
The bottom line: In an ideal world, California would be the Democratic Party's proof of concept -- a diverse, economically dominant liberal stronghold designed to prove progressive governance could deliver at scale.