BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) - China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and maintain the same pace in 2027, a Reuters poll showed, piling pressure for more stimulus as policymakers look to address deep structural vulnerabilities to underpin the nation's longer-term health.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown 4.9% in 2025 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by strong exports and policy support, according to the median forecasts of 73 economists polled by Reuters.
The world's second-largest economy showed remarkable resilience in 2025, helped by smaller than expected U.S. tariff hikes and exporters' push to diversify away from the United States, allowing policymakers to keep stimulus to modest levels.
But the reliance on external demand underscores vulnerabilities in China's economy, which is grappling with weak domestic spending amid a prolonged property slump and persistent deflationary pressures.
China on Wednesday reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, led by booming exports to non-U.S. markets as producers looked to build global scale to fend off sustained pressure from the Trump administration.
The 2026 economic outlook is clouded by rising global trade protectionism and by U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran.
"External demand was the biggest positive surprise in 2025. Should exports disappoint in 2026, it would trigger additional domestic stimulus from Beijing to defend its growth target," Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note.
"The size of the stimulus package will largely depend on the magnitude of the export slowdown."
Growth likely slowed to 4.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from 4.8% in the third quarter, marking the weakest pace in three years as consumption and investment faltered despite resilient exports, the poll showed.
On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.1% in July-September, the poll showed.
The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Monday. (0200 GMT).
Chinese leaders have also vowed to "significantly" lift household consumption's share of the economy over the next five years, though they have not set a specific target. Most policy advisers believe China should lift the ratio to 45% by 2030, up from roughly 40% now.
China's household consumption is about 20 percentage points below the global average, while investment is roughly 20 points higher, a gap economists warn is increasingly unsustainable and represents a drag on broader industrial activity.
The structural imbalances in the economy pose risks to longer term growth and China's ambitions to take leadership in the high-tech industries, economists say. Beijing has repeatedly pledged to address the problems but has been hampered by a rapid increase in debt and external pressures, most recently from Trump's strident moves to curb China's export machine and advances made in cutting-edge technology.
MORE STIMULUS EXPECTED
At an agenda-setting economic meeting in December, Chinese leaders promised to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy this year to help maintain economic growth, which analysts expect Beijing to target at roughly 5%.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has pledged to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity ample, and continue to implement appropriately loose monetary policy.
Analysts in the same Reuters poll expect the PBOC to cut its key policy rate - the seven-day reverse repo rate - by 10 basis points in the first quarter.
China's consumer price inflation is expected to rise to 0.7% this year, before picking up further to 1.0% in 2027, according to the poll. Inflation was flat in 2025.