Colombia's two top presidential candidates -- conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda -- are statistically tied in the latest poll ahead of Election Day on May 31.
De la Espriella has 32.1% support to Cepeda's 31.4% in the AtlasIntel poll for Semana magazine. Former Antioquia governor Sergio Fajardo is trailing at 7.6%. The results exclude undecided voters and those who said they wouldn't vote.
If no candidate takes a majority, the election would go to a second round. In that scenario, de la Espriella would receive 36.8% compared with 34.6% for Cepeda, according to the poll published Saturday. About 12% of respondents said they hadn't decided.
Colombia's electoral authority this week barred Cepeda from participating in a March 8 primary that was set to determine a single first-round candidate, dealing a blow to his leftist coalition.
AtlasIntel surveyed 7,298 people nationwide between Jan. 27 and Feb. 4. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Discontent over UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's handling of revelations about his former US ambassador's friendship with pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein has members of the governing Labour Party contemplating a change of leader.
While that's surprising for a party elected to a landslide majority in July 2024 on a promise to restore stability following the turmoil of successive Conservative governments, Starmer's historically low approval ratings have left him weak and vulnerable. His only solace is that his most likely leadership rivals -- Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner -- don't appear ready to mount a challenge.
Before the latest revelations about former Ambassador Peter Mandelson, Starmer had repeatedly batted away speculation about his leadership. If Starmer stays committed to serving out his five-year term, any attempt would have to meet several criteria to challenge him.
First, the Labour Party rule book stipulates that prime ministerial candidates have to hold a seat in Parliament. They also need to secure the nomination of at least 20% of the party's members in the House of Commons, meaning 81 of the leader's colleagues would have to be ready to signal their opposition to him.
That represents a higher bar than the 15%-of-MPs threshold the Conservatives require to trigger a confidence vote against their own leaders.
Another barrier that would likely put challengers off for now are a tricky special election in the parliamentary seat of Gorton and Denton on Feb. 26, and a set of local elections in May in which Labour is expected to suffer heavy losses. They may well reason that it's far better to let Starmer take the heat of defeat before mounting a leadership bid.
Of course, Starmer could decide his position was untenable and resign over Mandelson or after the elections. That could open the field for any number of challengers.
Here's who could be in the running to lead the Labour Party, with the latest bookmaker odds:
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Angela Rayner, 45, Former Deputy Prime Minister
Rayner, whose working-class background and lack of formal qualifications made her a darling of Labour's left, has had a tricky few months. She was forced to resign as deputy prime minister and deputy party leader in September after an investigation concluded she had failed to pay the full amount of tax on a home purchase. But she's used the time to connect with Labour colleagues unshackled by her association with an unpopular prime minister, and some of the government's most popular policies -- including on workers' rights and housebuilding -- have her fingerprints all over them. She proved her ability to gauge the mood among her parliamentary colleagues when she was instrumental this week in forcing the government to change course on plans to withhold some of the Mandelson vetting papers. Documents deemed sensitive on national security grounds will now be passed to Parliament's cross-party Intelligence and Security Committee to make a judgment. Rayner's path to power is still strewn with complications. The government tax authorities are yet to conclude their assessment of penalties she may owe over the house purchase that forced her resignation. She is nevertheless the current bookmakers' favorite to succeed Starmer.
Odds: The best odds on gambling aggregator site oddschecker are currently 5/2, or a probability of 28.6%.
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Wes Streeting, 43, Health Secretary
The health secretary regularly bats away media questions about the leadership, saying he's not plotting to overthrow Starmer and is focused on his day job. But the bookies long rated him the premier’s most likely successor and, despite the denials, his ambition is obvious. Streeting forcefully denied plotting a coup when Starmer allies accused him of that in November, calling it “self-defeating nonsense” and urging Starmer to sack those responsible for briefing the media. But he stoked tensions last month when he made thinly veiled criticisms of the prime minister after yet another policy reversal. While Streeting is undoubtedly a polished media performer, he's hampered both by his position on Labour's right and his formerly close ties with Mandelson. His decision to ban the prescription of puberty blockers for transgender children has lost him some support on the left, as has his defense of involving the private sector in the UK's National Health Service.
Odds: The best odds on oddschecker are currently 4/1, or a probability of 20%.
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Ed Miliband, 56, Energy Secretary
After clear front-runners Rayner and Streeting, the bookmakers rate Miliband as best of the rest, especially after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s recent setbacks (see below). The former leader of the opposition has seen his star rise a second time as the energy secretary, enacting policies popular with the Labour left to further Britain’s net zero ambitions. Miliband’s experience, policy expertise and popularity with the so-called soft left have led some to speculate he could have support to succeed Starmer, who was first selected as a Labour candidate under his own leadership. Now back in the role he previously enjoyed during Gordon Brown’s premiership, he has been a strong advocate of green policies, often seeking to go further than the wider government’s position. Some in the party fear choosing Miliband would send the wrong signal to the public, who rejected him at the ballot box in 2015 in favor of the Conservatives.
Odds: The best odds on gambling aggregator site oddschecker are currently 8/1, or a probability of 11.1%.
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Andy Burnham, 56, Greater Manchester Mayor
Burnham has made no secret of his desire to one day be prime minister, and has twice stood and failed to become Labour leader. Last year he espoused his ambitions in a series of print-media interviews in the run-up to the Labour Party conference that were seen to have set him back by forming too open a challenge. On that occasion, the party rallied around Starmer, who emerged from the gathering stronger than he went in. A greater obstacle for the popular mayor of Manchester is that he doesn't hold a seat in parliament -- and was blocked by Starmer and his allies from standing in a special election later this month to fill the vacant Gorton and Denton seat. Their argument -- that it would spark an unnecessary and costly election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty -- will stand until that post comes up for reelection in 2028.
Odds: The best odds on oddschecker are currently 9/1, or a probability of 10%.
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Shabana Mahmood, 45, Home Secretary
Mahmood, a Starmer ally who was shuffled into the role of home secretary with a mandate to supercharge efforts to improve the UK's border security, is similarly seen as an ambitious operator on the right of the party. A persuasive speaker, she would be popular among Labour MPs who would like to see a woman lead the party. As a Muslim, she's also seen as having an ability to reach out to the pro-Palestine supporters who have left Labour in recent years, even if her policy record in government has been hard-line. She's had little time to prove herself, and is less well-known by the public. Her tougher stance on immigration -- she unveiled plans to curtail the way in which migrants can claim indefinite leave to remain in the UK -- is also unpopular with some colleagues, though may prove attractive to voters who might otherwise be looking to Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
Odds: The best odds on oddschecker are currently 9/1, or a probability of 10%.
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Al Carns, 45, Armed Forces Minister
Who? Carns is a member of Labour's 2024 intake, but has risen swiftly through the ranks. A former Royal Marines colonel who was decorated for gallantry during his service in Afghanistan, Carns was immediately given a ministerial role -- covering the veterans brief -- following the election. In September, he was shuffled to the armed forces portfolio, and made his mark in December by saying Britain needs to be prepared for war with Russia, remarks that set the leadership tongues wagging. He'll have done his standing within Labour no harm by issuing a punchy video last month criticizing Donald Trump's suggestion thatthe US's NATO allies stayed away fromthe front linein Afghanistan. Nevertheless,Carns remainsa largelyunknownquantitywithinLabour,whichhasbeenherebeforewithformermilitarymen:inthepastdecade,bothDanJarvis--nowsecurityminister--andCliveLewis,a backbencher,havetoutedaspotentialleaders.
Odds: The best odds on oddschecker are currently 50/1, or a probability of 2%.