Election official Debra Mikell checks a touch-screen voting machine at a voting site in Chicago this week. (Nam Y. Huh/AP)
Amid their winter of political discontent, Republicans discovered some hope in the wealthy suburbs of northern New Jersey this month.
Progressive candidate Analilia Mejia, who is supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), won a special Democratic primary election by a little more than 1,000 votes, winning just 29 percent of the less than 70,000 ballots cast. Mejia beat out a fractured field of more than 10 candidates after three of the more mainstream liberals divided up the field.
Republicans do not expect to win the April 16 special election, which is being held to fill the seat vacated by now-New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. But they do believe that in more competitive races, the New Jersey dynamic could help save their congressional majorities come November.
Their hypothesis is this: Democratic primary voters are gravitating toward candidates who are too progressive to win in swing districts and states, creating an opportunity for the GOP.
Take Rep. Darrell Issa (R). Some political observers left him for dead after California's redistricting moved him from a safe political seat that he regularly won by 20-point margins into a district that President Donald Trump lost in 2024 by almost four percentage points.
However, he is feeling good about the contest: At least 11 Democrats are in the race, with San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert running as the more establishment candidate and Ammar Campa-Najjar as the leading progressive so far.
"She's quite a leftist," Issa said of von Wilpert in an interview Thursday. And of Campa-Najjar, he added: "The other lead candidate has been everything. He'll be whatever he needs to be."
Issa is taking an approach of the more, the merrier, believing that—just like in New Jersey—a large field will lead to an eventual nominee who is further to the left.
"Yeah, I am hoping there's more," he joked.
Issa's optimism aside, the 2026 midterm elections are not looking great for the GOP at the moment. According to The Washington Post's polling average of 10 national polls this year, Democrats have about a five-percentage-point advantage with voters. Democrats need just a three-seat gain to claim the House majority in November. The math is a bit more complicated in the Senate, where Democrats need at least four seats—a feat that will require successfully defending an open Michigan seat and knocking off Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). Still, the party believes the energy is on their side right now.
"We are going to win and take back the Senate. That's our North Star, that's what guides us on everything," Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) said in a brief interview Thursday.
Democrats point to their big victories in November as proof that the wind is in their sails, and the party's strategists say their competitive primaries are only about finding candidates who best position the party to win in November. They also see the overflow of candidates in some races as a bounty representing the depth of talent in their party.
"However the primaries shake out, one thing is clear: voters are souring on Republican rule because everything is too damn expensive, and Republicans are too busy enriching themselves and their billionaire buddies," said Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Over the last 15 or so years, bitter congressional primary battles have been more prevalent on the Republican side of the ledger. In the 2022 midterms alone, Republicans in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania nominated Senate candidates ill-suited for the general election, as well as in House races in Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington among others.
Democrats retained their Senate majority and gained an additional seat in that midterm election. They lost the House majority by such a narrow margin that Republicans struggled to govern the chamber.
To be sure, Republicans have some of their own primary troubles this year, beginning with Texas, where GOP Sen. John Cornyn faces two primary challengers in a race that could end up very competitive in the fall should one of his competitors—who are both to his right—win. And in Georgia, the GOP's hopes of ousting Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) ride on an electable Republican emerging from the crowded, low-profile field of contenders.
Republicans are not openly admitting the mistakes of their past, but a key part of their 2026 strategy is hoping to benefit from a reverse of the 2022 primary season.
"Democrats are in a cage match with their own base, and the only rule is to lurch further left. While they burn cash and tear each other apart in their messy primaries, Republicans will define their unelectable, radical nominees early and take key battleground seats off the board," Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.
The NRCC has data on seven races in which the more liberal candidate has surged ahead of the seemingly more moderate candidate in fundraising and is entering the homestretch of primary season with more cash on hand. Republicans hold all seven, and each is a top GOP priority.
According to the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, five of those races are rated pure toss-ups—two in California, as well as one each in Colorado, New Jersey and New York; in the other two Democrats are narrowly favored to win a Nebraska seat, and Republicans are narrowly favored in a Michigan contest.
Despite their public rhetoric, there are Democrats who privately hope more establishment-friendly nominees will win their primaries. They believe that their party's far-left activists will support even a moderate candidate, but that the opposite may not be true. They suggest the temperamentally moderate Sherrill’s surprising blowout gubernatorial win is a template for how the general elections might unfold.
That's especially true in Senate races, some of which are causing Democrats headaches.
In Michigan, a three-way split has emerged with Rep. Haley Stevens running in the mainstream lane while state Sen. Mallory McMorrow is running in the intellectual liberal lane and former health official Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed running as a Sanders progressive.
Stevens has faced questions about her support of Israel, while McMorrow and El-Sayed have sniped at one another over who has the truest liberal credentials.
In Maine, Schumer helped recruit Gov. Janet Mills into the Democratic primary, but a first-time candidate, oysterman Graham Platner, has emerged running a salt-of-the-earth campaign backed by Sanders and other national liberal organizations. Platner has had to explain controversial past statements and actions on social media while liberal activists say Mills, 78, is too old.
House Democrats are adamant that their primary battles, so far at least, have not grown that bitter. They point, as an example, to Nebraska’s Omaha-anchored district where the five-term incumbent Republican, Rep. Don Bacon, is retiring and a field of at least six candidates are duking it out ahead of the May primary.
"Voters are looking for who can win in November," John Cavanaugh, a third-term state senator and son of a former congressman, told a local TV affiliate. "And when you look at my résumé, my record of accomplishment, and my ability to stand up and fight for people, that is why we are seeing more and more people coming on board [with my campaign]."
Denise Powell, a former corporate executive turned local activist, similarly cited her own background as best-suited for November. "In this moment, the fact that I'm a working mom; I’m a small-business owner; I’m the daughter of immigrants. I am feeling and seeing the challenges that people in this community are facing," she said.
Republicans believe Cavanaugh, backed by the congressional Progressive Caucus, would present as a more out-of-step nominee in November particularly as the GOP has already unified behind Brinker Harding an Omaha City Council member who has adopted Bacon’s successful political machine.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) brushed aside questions about the New Jersey special election and its ramifications for primary contests this year merely saying he will "monitor" those. Jeffries declared that anti-Trump momentum has built to such a crescendo that Democrats are certain to win enough seats to claim majority.
"We only need to net three. It's happening. Democrats are going to take back control of the House; and the only question is what's the margin," Jeffries said.
Issa who first won a House race in 2000 said he is familiar with the playbook that Democrats will run against someone who's a proud Trump backer like he is.
"Oh God,you don't want the guy that stood with Trump," he said mimicking a political hit ad."I'm not going to run from my positions that often are the same as President Trump's.I have an advantage and a disadvantage.I have a long history;they can talk about everything I've done."
He said he will focus his race on what he has delivered for Southern California stealing a page from Rep.David G.Valadao(R) who regularly wins his competitive Central Valley district by running hard on local issues.
"They see David Valadao as somebody who's there for them regardless of politics.I'm going to have the same challenge,"he said.