Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are locked into their Senate primary runoff fight as they court President Trump's coveted endorsement.
Trump teased days after the rivals advanced to a runoff that he'd back one candidate and ask the other to exit the race. But Tuesday, the formal dropout date, passed without that backing. Now, both Paxton and Cornyn will appear on the May 26 ballot, a potential boost for the controversial attorney general who trailed the incumbent in the returns earlier this month.
The runoff extends the expensive primary brawl by several weeks, soaking up attention and resources on the Republican side as Democratic nominee James Talarico fuels hopes of a flip in the red stronghold and zeroes in on November's general election.
"A runoff is dangerous business, very dangerous business, especially going into a competitive general," Texas Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo said.
Cornyn, who's seeking a fifth term in the Senate, beat Paxton by roughly 1 point in the March 3 primary, according to tallies from Decision Desk HQ, but he fell short of the majority support needed to avoid a runoff. Across the aisle, Talarico nabbed the Democratic nod, finishing roughly 7 points ahead of rival Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas).
Trump wrote on Truth Social after the primary that the GOP infighting "cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer." Pledging an endorsement "soon," the president said he planned to ask the candidate he didn't pick to "immediately" end their bid.
"I'm a little surprised," Minchillo said. "The president is a guy who does what he says he's going to do, by and large, and 'soon' has come and gone."
Paxton initially suggested he'd be staying in the race regardless of a Trump endorsement, but later he said he'd be open to dropping out of the contest on several conditions, including if Senate leadership lifts the filibuster and advances the House-passed Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.
Cornyn, despite his past support of the Senate tradition, has since backed changing the filibuster rules to advance the election reform bill championed by Trump.
Cornyn's campaign unleashed a new ad this past week, just ahead of the deadline to drop out, hammering Paxton's character. And a pro-Paxton super PAC launched a TV ad last weekend, running not in Texas but in the West Palm Beach media market as Trump visited Florida.
But the president has so far stayed out of the Texas race as he grapples with the Iran war, which started just days before the Lone Star State's primaries, and its fallout.
Trump told NBC News on March 14 he would make an endorsement in the "next week or so" but added, "I like both candidates very much."
By withholding an endorsement, Trump has put Texas Republicans "in a situation where they can't coalesce, where they will continue to engage in bitter infighting, where they will expend a ton of money to finally get a nominee who has been decidedly bruised and battered," said Jon Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Texas, San Antonio.
And with the dropout deadline in the rear view, Taylor said, "we're left in a situation now where these two people who have been just bashing each other mercilessly [are] going to continue to spend a lot of money over the next two months."
Cornyn's campaign declined to comment on the possibility of a Trump endorsement but emphasized in a statement to The Hill that Cornyn is "one of [Trump's] most effective allies in the Senate."
The Hill reached out to Paxton's campaign for additional comment.
Trump could still endorse at any time, but experts were hesitant to predict just how impactful his support might be at this point in the race.
"If you're the Paxton campaign and you don't get the Trump endorsement, I don't think that's fatal. I think there's still a path to victory," Minchillo said, pointing to "very enthusiastic" Paxton voters who are expected to show up despite the typical trend of lower runoff turnout.
"I think there's still definitely a chance that he does endorse coming down the end stretch. That being said, the president hates backing a loser ... so he's going to want to see strength out of Cornyn's camp coming out of this primary in order to lock it up," said Ross Hunt, a GOP data analyst and pollster based in Dallas.
Hunt said Trump's support would help but wouldn't "be a silver bullet," pointing to Cornyn's staggering cash advantage as a sign that he's got the clear edge even without an endorsement.
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey earlier this month found that 49 percent of likely Republican runoff voters backed Paxton, while 41 percent backed Cornyn. With a hypothetical Trump endorsement for Cornyn, Paxton's lead shrunk to 1 point. The poll had a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
A new poll from Change Research for Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund also found Paxton beating Cornyn without a Trump endorsement, 42 percent to 39 percent. With a Trump endorsement, Paxton climbed to a 10-point edge, while Cornyn won by 3 points.
The GOP Senate primary has been considered a test of the MAGA brand in Texas, where Trump won by 14 points in 2024's presidential election. The runoff means two more months of a tough intraparty fight in what's already become the most expensive Senate primary on record.
"After a scorched-earth primary, how do you turn around and actually win the general election?" Taylor said of the GOP contenders. "This is not to say that whoever wins a Republican nomination can't win the general; they can. But it definitely weakens them and provides ammunition for James Talarico."
National Republicans, including the Senate GOP campaign arm, have pushed for support to consolidate around Cornyn, who they argue has the best chances of winning what's shaping up to be a surprisingly competitive general election in the red state. They've pointed to controversy around Paxton -- impeached in the Texas House before being acquitted in the Texas Senate on corruption charges in 2023, and divorced by his state lawmaker wife "on biblical grounds" -- as a liability for November.
But Paxton's team has underscored the Texas attorney general's success in his statewide elections, and supporters have pointed out that the majority of primary voters sided against Cornyn by voting for either Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who came in third place and missed the runoff.
The winner of the runoff will face off in November against Talarico, who hasn't escaped attacks from his Republican rivals as the runoff ramps up.
Democrats have struggled for decades to win statewide in Texas, and Republicans are still favored to win the Senate seat this fall, regardless of which candidate wins the GOP nod. But the tough GOP primary and Talarico's strong Democratic bid have put Republicans on defense in a state that's long been an easy lift.
Internal polling from the Democrat's campaign showed Talarico leading Cornyn by 2 points and Paxton by 1 point in a general election, Politico reported this week.
Republicans hold a slim 53-47 majority in the Senate, and a flip in Texas could be critical to Democrats' hopes of winning back chamber control this fall.
"This primary runoff is a high-stakes battle for Republicans in the fall. It's also kind of a test case for whether or not the Republican party can reimagine its brand as we move into the general election," Hunt said. "We don't even really know whether it's going to be advantageous for candidates to distance themselves maximally from Trump, or to lean into his strengths."