A report shows that both Mead and Powell have "reached alarmingly low levels, holding just one-third of their usual capacity."
After a brief reprieve in 2023 and early 2024, a long-simmering water crisis in the West is back with a vengeance, impacting massive water reservoirs, drought conditions and wildfire concerns.
In fact, according to a recent report from environmental firm AEM, the western United States faces "a rapidly worsening drought crisis, with affected areas nearly tripling compared to last year."
"The drought in the West is a real concern," said AEM senior meteorologist James Aman in an e-mail to USA TODAY. "Over the past few weeks, drought has worsened in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and northern Utah," he said.
Overall, the recent western drought was at its worst in late 2021, when nearly 94% of the West was in drought, before easing in 2023-24. It is now at 58%.
Of particular concern in the Southwest are the giant reservoirs of the Colorado River basin, Lakes Mead and Powell, which remain far below capacity.
The Colorado River and the two reservoirs have been in crisis because of a multidecade drought in the West intensified by climate change, rising demand and overuse. The river also serves Mexico and more than two dozen Native American tribes, produces hydropower, and supplies water to farms that grow most of the nation's winter vegetables.
The report shows that both Mead and Powell, crucial reservoirs that provide drinking water for 40 million Americans, have "reached alarmingly low levels, holding just one-third of their usual capacity. This shortage poses significant challenges to agriculture, urban water supplies, and industries reliant on consistent water availability," according to the report.
This is up from a low point in 2022, when they were 25% full, but still far from their historic highs of the early 2000s, when they were 95% full.
What's the latest on Lakes Mead and Powell? Could they drop to record low levels this year?
The two reservoirs are located in the Southwest, with huge Lake Mead primarily in Nevada and Powell located along the Utah-Arizona border.
Aman said that "in historical terms, current water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead remain very low. Lake Mead is currently at only 31% of capacity," he said.
Lake Powell is at 34% capacity, according to David Simeral, a scientist with the Desert Research Institute.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell did see water levels increase a bit early this summer, as spring snowmelt worked its way down the Colorado River system, according to Aman.
"However, as the summer progresses, lake-levels will begin to decrease," he said. "Water levels are projected to continue falling through the end of this year. The lowest level ever recorded at Lake Mead was 1,041 feet in July 2022 (lowest level since the reservoir started filling in the 1930s). Projections show Lake Mead remaining just above 1,050 feet by later this year, so it would not set a new record low this year."
However, long-range projections show even lower water levels by later 2026, with some chance of reaching near the record low, Aman said.
The two reservoirs are vital for water supply in the West, according to Aman: "Seven states use Colorado River for parts of their water supply (Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California). Just over 50% is used for farm irrigation, and almost 20% is used for drinking water. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are by far the two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River."
KDSK-TV reported that the Colorado River, which connects the two lakes, provides drinking water for major cities including Denver, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Phoenix, as well as 90% of Las Vegas's drinking water.
Expanding drought in the West
Just one year ago, only 18% of the western U.S. was in a drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of this week's monitor, that number is up to 58%.
This significant drought expansion "raises serious concerns about water availability, agricultural productivity, wildfire threats, and infrastructure stability across the region," the AEM report said.
The latest medium and long-range outlooks from the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate below-normal precipitation in the area for the next several months, according to Aman.
Additionally, hotter-than-normal temperatures are expected across the Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and Upper Midwest, exacerbating drought conditions and placing significant stress on regional electric grids, the AEM report stated.
Some good news
However, there is some good news in one part of the West: "An active North American monsoon is anticipated to continue through all of July and possibly into August," Aman told USA TODAY. "This is likely to bring above-normal rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Southwest U.S. We agree with the NWS CPC outlooks that show above-normal precipitation is likely across Arizona and New Mexico, and perhaps into southeast Utah and western Colorado through all of July."
He added that parts of the Southwest have very deep drought, so just a single summer of above-normal rainfall won't be enough to eliminate drought in these areas.
wildfire worries
The severe drought conditions are further intensifying wildfire risks in the West, particularly around the July 4th holiday, historically associated with increased wildfire activity, the AEM report said. Areas such as California, the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies are projected to face above-normal fire potential throughout the summer months, further straining firefighting resources and endangering communities.
Canada is also facing extreme fire danger across western provinces, with burned acreage already triple the seasonal average.
"This summer will bring a dangerous combination of heat, dryness, and fuel buildup that elevates wildfire risks across North America," said Aman. "We're already seeing an above-average number of wildfires in the U.S., with similar trends north of the border."
Why might July 4 be especially dangerous for wildfires?
"There is a huge spike in the number of human-caused wildfires in the United States around the 4th of July holiday," Aman told USA TODAY, "related to the improper use of fireworks."
"When plotted on a map, the highest concentration of wildfires caused by fireworks occurs in the western half of the U.S., mainly in national parks, national forests, and certain other rural areas. Other smaller clusters of wildfires caused by fireworks are seen around some large U.S. cities, and in national parks and forests in the eastern U.S."