January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is down -0.32 (-0.56%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed down -0.0118 (-0.67%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are falling today, with gasoline posting a 4.75-year nearest-futures low. Today's dollar strength is undercutting energy prices. Also, today's stock weakness has dampened optimism about the economic outlook, a negative factor for energy demand and crude prices. In addition, concerns about a global oil glut continue to pressure crude prices.
Concerns about a global oil supply cut are bearish for prices after global commodities trader Trafigura said Tuesday that the global oil market is headed for a "super glut" next year as a wave of new supply runs up against sluggish energy demand.
Weakness in the crude crack spread is a negative factor for oil prices. The crack spread fell to a 2.25-month low today, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil and refining it into gasoline and distillates.
Ramped-up geopolitical risks in Venezuela, the world's 12th largest crude producer, are supportive for crude prices after US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on Wednesday. Reuters reported on Thursday that the US is preparing to intercept more sanctioned tankers transporting Venezuelan oil. The seizures may make it more difficult for Venezuela to export its oil, as other shippers are now likely to be more reluctant to load cargoes from Venezuela.
Geopolitical risks from the Russian-Ukrainian war are supporting crude prices. Last Tuesday, Interfax reported that Russian President Putin threatened to attack ships from nations helping Ukraine if attacks on Russian vessels don't stop. Recently, five Russian tankers have been attacked by drones in the Black Sea.
Reduced crude exports from Russia are underpinning crude prices. On November 19, Vortexa data showed Russia's oil product shipments fell to 1.7 million bpd in the first 15 days of November, the lowest in more than 3 years. Ukraine has targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past three months, exacerbating a fuel crunch in Russia and limiting Russia's crude export capabilities. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks recently damaged a Russian Baltic Sea oil terminal, forcing it to close. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries 1.6 million bpd of Kazakhstan's crude exports, was forced to close after a pipeline was damaged at one of its moorings. New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.