Montana Democrats are prepping for a November Senate race that will feature an open seat with Republican Senator Steve Daines suddenly not seeking reelection, but betting markets currently rate the seat as heavily favoring a GOP retention.
Democrats face a difficult map to take control back in the Senate, needing to hold all their seats and flip four Republican seats. North Carolina and Maine are crucial targets for the party, but Texas has emerged along with Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Alaska as other possible targets.
Daines, a two-term senator and former chair of the Senate GOP campaign arm, ended his reelection campaign on Wednesday, clearing the way for former U.S. attorney Kurt Alme to emerge as the leading GOP contender. Alme received endorsements from Daines and President Donald Trump.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as "solid Republican." Former Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost his seat to Republican businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in November 2024.
Following Daines' dropping out of the race, Seth Bodnar, an independent candidate, criticized the timing, saying the Republican "withdrew at the last minute to coronate his handpicked successor instead of giving them a voice at the ballot box."
On the betting markets, Polymarket's "Montana Senate Election Winner" prediction showed Republicans leading with a market-implied probability of 72 percent and Democrats at 9 percent, with total volume around $16,400 since launch.
In a Kalshi bet on who will be the next Montana Senator, bettors have bet 98 percent that a Republican candidate will win, with a 2 percent chance that a Democratic candidate will take the seat. Twenty-six percent bet that Bodnar will secure the spot. The bet has nearly $90,000 in volume.
Republican Senator Steve Daines said in a video announcement posted Wednesday: "Serving the people of Montana in the US House and the US Senate the past 13 years has been the greatest honor of my professional career...I've decided not to seek reelection."
President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday: "Steve Daines, of Montana, is one of our truly Great United States Senators. He honorably served for 12 years in the Senate, and 2 in the House of Representatives. He did a job like few others are capable of doing but, sadly for our Country, Steve's Term is up, and he has decided to leave the Senate and, "pass the torch" to Kurt Alme, my TRUMP 45 and TRUMP 47 U.S. Attorney. In fact, if Kurt didn't have the highest level of aptitude and talent, Steve would have remained exactly where he is but, Kurt is exceptional, and I will be giving him, based on Steve's strongest recommendation, my Complete and Total Endorsement. Governor Greg Gianforte and Senator Tim Sheehy have also Endorsed Kurt."
Republican Senator Tim Sheehy, on X Wednesday: "Senator Daines is a giant in Montana politics and a master political strategist. Starting in 2012, Steve led a conservative revolution in our state that resulted in flipping every single statewide office to Republican control. In 2024, Steve did our country a great service leading the charge to win back Republican control of the U.S. Senate. Steve is doing something we don't often see in modern politics: stepping down at the height of his power to clear the way for a new generation of leaders. I'm honored to call Steve a friend and am grateful for his years of service to our state."
Montana Republican Governor Greg Gianforte, also on X Wednesday: "I've known @SteveDaines for nearly 30 years. From growing a successful business together to serving Montanans together, I'm proud to call Steve a true friend and partner. He made a big impact and his leadership and service to our state will be missed."
The primary vote in Montana is set for June 2 and the general election is scheduled for November 3.