Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance.
Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term.
The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded.
The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign.
However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign.
The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff.
"It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP.
"It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen.
"I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm."
Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority.
He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election.
Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour".
"They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast.
Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media.
AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election.
Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure.
"The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said.
Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation.
"They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC.
"This is nuts that we're going to an election."
Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy.
He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident.
"Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters.
"I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said.
"Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."