At dawn on Saturday Oct. 7, 2023, as rockets and gunmen poured into Israel from Gaza, Hamas military chief Mohammad Deif declared the Jewish state finished: "To our brothers in the Islamic resistance in Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, the day has come."
The day did come, but not the one Deif imagined.
He's dead, along with a generation of fellow Islamist leaders at the hands of Israel, which has emerged as a regional hegemon. And Hamas' principle benefactor, Iran, is being systematically dismantled. And while the question of Palestinian statehood was thrust onto center-stage by the Gaza war, it's out of focus again as the region's future is recast by a joint US-Israeli war on Tehran.
"This is a war of redemption that began on October 7," Ophir Falk, foreign affairs adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said. "We took out the Islamist leadership and commanders across the region and now we're removing the existential threat of the ayatollah's regime that's been terrorizing the world for 47 years."
Many outside Israel don't see the connection. For them, the 2023 Hamas attack and the brutal Gaza war it triggered -- killing tens of thousands of Palestinians and reducing vast portions of the territory to rubble -- are a tale of Israeli oppression and vengeance.
That has deeply tarnished its international standing and made the prospect of building ties with Middle Eastern countries more remote.
"Forget normalization," former Saudi Arabian intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal told CNN on Wednesday. "This is Netanyahu's war."
But perhaps more importantly, Israel's actions since Oct. 7 have alienated many in the US, the country's most important ally. Last week, Gallup released a poll that showed for the first time more Americans sympathize with Palestinians than with Israelis, 41% to 36%. That's compared to a 54%-31% split in favor of Israel three years ago. Among 18-34 years old, the figures are even starker -- barely a quarter favor Israelis.
The war with Iran has drawn similar bipartisan condemnation, with politicians and commentators across the political spectrum accusing Israel of dragging Washington into battle after Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Israel's determination to strike the country had forced the US to act.
In a further sign of Israel's precarious place in political discourse, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a leading contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, this week said the US should rethink its military partnership with Israel. He likened Israel to "an apartheid state." That kind of language would've been unthinkable for a leading American politician only a few years ago.
As the war wears on, it's also increasing the chance of friction between the US, which sees it as a conflict of choice, and Israel, which considers it existential. While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly floated regime change, his administration has been at pains to say its targets are military and nuclear, while Israel's are aimed at the state and at sparking an internal uprising that will topple the Islamic Republic.
"It seems the Israelis have one target list, and the US has another," said Richard Clarke, a former White House official and assistant secretary of state. "I can imagine a couple weeks from now the US military saying we've bombed everything we want to bomb, and Trump might declare we're over."
Still, for most Israelis -- polls show more than 80% backing the current war -- the past two and a half years offer a kind of straight line indicating what they now consider to have been a dangerous complacency that they successfully overcame in the name of survival.
"October 7 was a national wakeup call," says Elad Levy, who owns a hair salon in central Tel Aviv. "We will never again let down our guard. For a lot of us, it was a kind message from God."
Oct. 7, 2023 was both the Jewish Sabbath and an Israeli holiday. Thousands of young people were dancing at a rave in the desert three miles (4.8 kilometers) from the Gaza border. On military bases nearby, soldiers slept in their beds. Israel and Saudi Arabia were close to normalizing relations, even without the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza getting much in the way of progress toward independence.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza had tens of thousands of missiles aimed at Israel, but the assessment was they were deterred and not about to fire them. The Houthis of Yemen, despite calling for "death to Israel," weren't firmly on the Israeli intelligence radar -- they were deemed too far away, and thus not a serious threat.
But the shock attack by Hamas brought others: with 250 hostages dragged into Gaza and gunmen still hiding around southern Israel, militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen fired at the Jewish state in solidarity with Hamas.
Israel found itself in a multi-front war for which it was unprepared. It was a massive shock for Netanyahu, who'd long campaigned as Mr. Security and touted his unique ability to anticipate threats to the nation.
He'd been lured -- along with most of the security establishment -- into believing that Hamas wouldn't dare. He'd encouraged Qatar to send money to Gaza; permitted some Gazans to work in Israel; boosted Gaza Islamists as a counterweight to the more secular Palestinian Authority based in the West Bank. It was a kind of divide-and-conquer strategy to prevent Palestinian sovereignty.
As he sprung into action on that day, pale and shaken, Netanyahu was considered to be done. In the middle of a corruption and bribery trial, presiding over the worst security lapse in the country's history, he would resign or be forced out, according to a chorus of commentators.
Yet today, Netanyahu, 76, along with Trump -- another figure then widely dismissed as a has-been -- are together, in the Israeli leader's words, "changing the face of the Middle East."
That began in Gaza, which the Israeli military bombarded, leaving more than 72,000 dead, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, sparking a global backlash and leading to an international arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
In Israel, while there has been muted criticism of the war's conduct, the overwhelming focus was on freeing the hostages and the legitimacy of a war against a group that openly seeks Israel's destruction. The political battle in Israel was over fighting harder, not pulling back.
It was a moment when Netanyahu sought to reinvent himself once again. The son of an historian, he faced his Neville Chamberlain moment by, many said, remaking himself as Winston Churchill, persuading his US ally to join him in defeating his enemy.
He did that first with President Joe Biden and then Trump. But those close to Netanyahu see a different historical figure as a model: Franklin Roosevelt, US president during the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Rather than cowing after that failure, Roosevelt turned it into the basis for US military supremacy and Allied victory over Germany and Japan in World War II.
Netanyahu followed a similar path, promising on Oct. 8, 2023 to remake the Middle East. Israeli security officials say the country was lucky Hezbollah didn't invade from the north as Hamas hoped; instead limiting itself to shooting missiles over the course of a year.
Methodically, the Israeli military and intelligence services took on their regional enemies, killing their leaders, and taking out many of their Lebanese operatives when their pagers blew up in their pockets in a spectacular 2024 attack. A ground incursion into Lebanon followed soon after. There were numerous air sorties over Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Israel also used the opportunity the war presented to further take control of the West Bank, where Jewish settler violence against Palestinians has soared, making the prospect of a Palestinian state even more remote.
Israel is pouring money into its military while many of its young people turn rightward and more religious. It has remade its security doctrine, placing troops outside its borders; setting up a department to defeat the Houthis; shifting focus from its opponents' intention to their capacity. The aim now is to strike first rather than wait and react to an attack.
Today, if Israel sees that an opposing military or militia can threaten it, it will act preemptively. That’s considered by many a violation of international law. So far, the US under Trump has backed Israel.
And global markets have too. After initially plummeting, Israeli assets rose during the course of the war. Israeli stocks have been among the world’s best performers since the start of 2025, rising 114% in dollar terms. Foreign investment has picked up.
In the past past week, stocks have slumped globally with the war causing an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices spiking. Yet the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index, the country's benchmark equities gauge gained almost 7% in dollars. It was the world's second-best performer while shekel strengthened more than any other currency.
Netanyahu is no longer being written off. Even those who despise him suspect he may be reelected this year.
"If this round ends quickly, Netanyahu will proudly ride it to the ballot box," lamented Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Haaretz, Israel's left-leaning daily newspaper,"the masses in Israel and countries region have been cast role cannon fodder collateral damage."
Indeed,many around globe watch what's happening Iran alarm -- remembering "forever wars" US Iraq Afghanistan.Frustration war countries such United Arab Emirates cities Dubai Abu Dhabi targeted Iranian drones missiles rising.
Regional military experts say horrified what consider poor planning Israel US what follows Iran.That’s only heightened reports Trump considering ground troopsBloomberg Terminal Iran;others saying Washington Israel working getting Kurdish forces take arms Iranian government.
In Israel however,cautious optimism despite ongoing missile attacks broad sense country much stronger position geopolitically militarily than two half years ago.
And no matter emerges Iran,it weaker less threat.Israel's ultimate goal see new Iranian government like monarchy before 1979 Islamic revolution warm relations us.Few whether Israel outside betting happening soon.Just much chance Iran Balkanized turned failed lawless state.
Meanwhile,israel hopes iran decision fire upon gulf arab states despite most them wanting war barring us israeli forces using airspace offensive purposes will win those countries over jewish state's side.
That's far from guaranteed.arab populations appalled suffering palestinians during war gaza.and many their governments increasingly concerned israel's military forays abroad.
The biggest concern for Israel is the growing disillusionment with it in the US. The fear is that Trump -- who faces tough midterm elections in November -- loses patience with the war before Iran's military capacities are destroyed. Already, American gasoline pump prices have risen along with oil prices.
"We need to pray that Trump doesn't balk," wrote Ben Caspit an anti-Netanyahu commentator Maariv newspaper."