Gold: Bearish Signals Emerge as Geopolitical Tensions Keep Downside Risks Alive

Gold: Bearish Signals Emerge as Geopolitical Tensions Keep Downside Risks Alive
Source: Investing.com

On Friday, President Donald Trump informed Congress that US hostilities with Iran had "terminated" during an ongoing ceasefire, asserting that he was not required to meet the legislative approval deadline for military action.

By law, a US president must receive Congress's approval within 60 days of notifying lawmakers of military action, or else cease hostilities.

But in a letter to congressional leaders, Trump said he does not have to comply with the War Powers Act, as the ceasefire agreed with Iran last month had paused the clock on any such obligation.

On the 60th day since he formally notified Congress of strikes against Iran, Trump wrote to congressional leaders on Friday:

"There has been no exchange of fire between the United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026. The hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated."

The US and Iran have not yet reached a long-term peace deal through talks, though Iranian media reported that a new proposal from Tehran was sent via Pakistan on Friday.

But Trump told reporters,

"We just had a conversation with Iran. Let's see what happens. But I would say that I am not happy."

He said a deal has been hard to reach in part because Iranian leadership was "very confused", after a number of its top military officials were killed in the war.

Trump said he was briefed on options by US Central Command on Thursday, ranging from "blast the hell out of them and finish them forever" to "make a deal".

Later on, Friday, Trump said:

"They're not coming through with the kind of deal that we have to have. And we're going to get this thing done properly. We're not going to leave early and then have the problem arise in three more years."

I raised some doubts about President Trump's compliance with relevant US law, the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which makes certain requirements of a president "within sixty calendar days" of their use of US armed forces in combat, in my previous analysis last Friday. The circumstances remain exactly the same as I discussed.

In Congress, lawmakers have faced mounting questions about whether they intend to schedule a vote in each chamber to decide whether the war should receive formal authorization, while President Trump has reset the clock on the inflection day (completion of the 60-day period on May 1, 2026) by avoiding the US Congress's approval.

However, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth argued before a congressional hearing on Thursday that the clock had paused on the deadline to seek legislators' approval.

Democratic Senator Tim Kaine responded: "I do not believe the statute would support that."

Democratic-led attempts in both chambers of Congress to constrain Trump in the case of Iran have repeatedly failed.

Most Republicans have opposed the Democratic efforts, though some have indicated they might reconsider their positions after the 60-day mark.

Asked on Friday about seeking authorisation from Congress, Trump told reporters, "No other country has ever done it". "Most people consider it totally unconstitutional," he said.

The Trump administration's interpretation of the War Powers Resolution has been questioned by some experts.

Professor Heather Brandon-Smith from Georgetown University Law in Washington DC said that even if a ceasefire was legally in effect, it would not stop the clock.

"A ceasefire is not a permanent end to the conflict," she said. "To my mind, a permanent end to the conflict is what would actually sort of close up the 60 days."

The courts or Congress, she said, would be the only means to stop the war if the Trump administration continues the conflict.

Upon evaluating the closing movements of the gold futures amid shifting moves on geopolitical concerns, I observed that Friday's closing by the gold futures indicates a lot on different time pattern charts as failure of war-diplomacy could re-escalate US-Iran war due to changing stances of US President Donald Trump, who says that the ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is 'a very profitable business'.

Technical Levels to Watch

In a monthly chart, gold futures, after starting this month at $4,659.60, tested an high at $4,688.90, and a low at $4,592, closed the first day at $4,661.40, formed a 'Bearish Doji' near the previous month's closing, are showing weakness as trading just above the pivotal point on the inflection day, could see continuation of exhaustion as a breakdown below the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,435) could accelerate the slide.

In a weekly chart, gold futures, after starting the last week at $4,713.10, tested the week's high at $4,745.80, and week's low at $4,540.20, closed the week at $4,661.40, just below the significant support at the 20 EMA ($4,676.35, showing weakness since the last three weeks, maintaining a 54-degree slide.

In a daily chart, despite maintaining a slide since April 17, 2026, at a 54-Degree angle, gold futures bounced back after testing the lows at $4,540.45 last Wednesday; closed last Friday at $4,661.40; just above the 100 EMA ($4,658.54.

Undoubtedly, this closing is below the formation of a "Bearish Crossover", formed as the 9 EMA and 20 EMA have pierced the 50 EMA, and the gold futures are trading even below the 9 EMA.

In a 1-Hr. chart, gold futures move during the last hour, indicating a potential gap-down opening on upcoming Monday, as I have already discussed the significance of such hourly closing creating gap-downs in my previous analysis on April 25, 2026.

I conclude that though US President Trump has cleared his stance by resetting the clock to refuse US Congressional approval on April 1, leaving the powers of the US Congress; he could change his stance on Sunday to avoid direct military action against Iran due to upcoming mid-term elections in November 2026.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and crude oil at their own risk as this analysis is based only on observations.