In evaluating the daily chart, I observed that gold futures fluctuated as hopes for de-escalation diminished and the status of further peace talks remained uncertain ahead of this week's ceasefire deadline.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the naval blockade against Iran will remain in place until a deal is struck with Tehran, following a series of geopolitical moves over the weekend, including the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel and Tehran's indication it may not participate in further negotiations.
The situation has raised fears of renewed conflict, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, a key artery for global oil shipments. The rising tensions pushed oil prices higher and triggered a broader risk-off move, with U.S. stocks ending lower on Monday.
The focus this week is squarely on whether the U.S. and Iran will meet for more peace talks before their ceasefire expires on Wednesday, as I have already discussed this in my previous analysis.
I observed that conflicting headlines about more peace talks between the U.S. and Iran are surging indecisiveness among investors. President Donald Trump told Bloomberg News that Vice President JD Vance would be leaving later in the day to resume peace talks in Pakistan.
But the New York Post earlier reported that Vance would actually be leaving for Pakistan on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump previously told the paper that the U.S. delegation would be in Pakistan "tonight."
Meanwhile, CNN reported that the White House had offered no clear indication of timing, saying the delegation would be "on the road soon, but unclear when."
Iran's Speaker of the Parliament and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the country would not accept negotiations "under the shadow of threats," and that Iran had prepared "new cards" to play on the battlefield.
His comments indicated that Tehran was less inclined towards more peace talks with Washington. But a "Wall Street Journal report showed Iran had told regional mediators that it would send a team to Pakistan on Tuesday for a second round of ceasefire talks with Washington.
But publicly, Iranian officials said they had not made any decisions on further talks with the U.S., according to local media reports.
I observe that the current scenario looks quite prevailing over the movements of the gold futures on Tuesday and Wednesday, as on Tuesday, after opening the day at $4,842.26, gold futures tested the day's high at $4,851.16, and the day's low at $4,805, gold futures are trading near the day's low.
Undoubtedly, the gold futures are trying to defend the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($4,802), where a breakdown could accelerate the selling spree and could push the futures to test the next support at the 100 EMA ($4,654).
I conclude that the surging indecisiveness on de-escalation efforts by both the U.S. and Iran fails, gold futures could experience a heavy sell-off this week, as the fragile ceasefire seems to be on a thin line due to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who always tries to divert President Trump's efforts to derail the ceasefire.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.