Ulta Beauty can be a strong addition to investor portfolios as tariff and economic risks abound, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Kate McShane upgraded shares of the beauty products company to buy from neutral. She also raised her price target to $423 from $384, implying shares could gain 15.4% from Monday's close. "We note tariff risk is low for Ulta, while the stock has seen pressure but proved resilient during recessionary periods," McShane wrote in a note on Tuesday. "Only ~1% of ULTA's shipments over the last 12 months were direct imports, so while the company does not know the exact exposure its brand partners have upstream, its exposure is relatively limited."
Investors are bracing for tariff announcements coming Wednesday, with the Trump administration expected to unveil reciprocal duties on products from other countries.
"From a merchandising perspective, ULTA called out its Ulta Beauty Collection brand, and beyond that, ULTA has some exposure from a store perspective (i.e., fixtures, lighting, supplies)," she said. The analyst also noted the stock is attractively valued. McShane said shares trade at around 15.8 times forward earnings, below a three-year average of 17.9. McShane also believes Ulta will outperform the broader beauty industry in 2026. A recent uptick in sales and a 9% year-over-year rise in app downloads support improving momentum for the company, while Google search trends also point to Ulta trending higher than Sephora, per McShane.
"Looking at ULTA vs. Sephora, searches for ULTA continue to track above Sephora, with the gap between the two for March-to-date the widest it has been so far in 2025," McShane wrote.
Shares advanced 2.5% Tuesday in the premarket following the upgrade. However, the stock is still down more than 15% year to date.