Has Japan's 'Rice Minister' Brought Down Prices Enough to Save His Party?

Has Japan's 'Rice Minister' Brought Down Prices Enough to Save His Party?
Source: The New York Times

Recently, there has been a lot on the shoulders of Shinjiro Koizumi.

In May, Mr. Koizumi, a 44-year-old scion of Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was appointed head of the country's agriculture ministry with a clear directive to reduce the price of rice -- fast.

The Liberal Democrats were just two months away from a high-stakes parliamentary election. Polls suggested a poor showing. They also suggested that voters were acutely focused on a central issue: whether the government would be able to rein in skyrocketing prices of rice.

In recent weeks, while batting away comments from President Trump decrying Japanese rice import policies, Mr. Koizumi has scrambled to lower prices. Bags of rice from strategic stockpiles -- costing less than half the price of other "brand" rices -- have begun to hit grocery store shelves across Japan.

But ahead of the election on Sunday, polls still indicated that the ruling coalition was likely to struggle to retain its upper house majority as the rising cost of living fueled dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Such an outcome would thrust Japan into a period of political instability just before an Aug. 1 deadline to reach a trade agreement with the United States. If no such deal is reached, the Trump administration has said, the American ally will face a 25 percent tariff on all of its exports to the United States.

Japan's current political landscape underscores the profound influence that prices -- often of emblematic staple foods, like eggs in the United States -- have on electoral outcomes. In Japan's case, tackling this issue is also deeply intertwined with the political fortunes of Mr. Koizumi, someone long seen as a possible future prime minister.

Mr. Koizumi, a son of a popular former prime minister, was selected to lead Japan's agriculture ministry after his predecessor resigned amid an uproar over his remark about having never bought a bag of rice. The comment highlighted the government's perceived inability to resolve persistent shortages of a staple consumed daily by nearly every household in Japan.

Japan's rice shortages and price surges began last summer. Industry experts said they stemmed from factors including poor harvests because of extreme heat, coupled with government policies that have historically kept prices high by limiting domestic cultivation.

While Japan's government has taken steps to counteract the shortages, including releasing thousands of tons of rice from an emergency stockpile, prices have remained stubbornly high, more than doubling in May from a year earlier.

The elevated cost of staples, including rice, has weighed on Japan's economy. Consumers, grappling with stagnant wages as they experience higher inflation for the first time in decades, have pulled back spending, causing Japan's economy to stagnate.

"The price of rice has gone up so drastically," said Saiko Kariya, a 48-year-old Tokyo resident who is raising a 9-year-old son while preparing to start a business. For now, Ms. Kariya said she had managed to circumvent buying high-priced rice at local stores by relying on shipments from a farmer friend.

With the election drawing near, Ms. Kariya's top concern is the rise she sees in prices of rice and other household staples. "Everything is so expensive," she said. "That's the center of my focus because it's everywhere around me."

Ms. Kariya is representative of a wide swath of voters. A recent poll from Japan's public broadcaster, NHK, found that higher prices of rice, along with social security issues, were the top concern for 28 percent of voters, above issues including foreign affairs and immigration.

According to Izuru Makihara, a professor of public administration at the University of Tokyo, rice has become a symbol of public dissatisfaction with a number of issues, including the rising prices and a political finance scandal that enveloped the Liberal Democrats in recent years.

"People feel a sense of heavy burden," Mr. Makihara said. "The rice issue is a manifestation of the view that politics isn't being done properly despite those heavy burdens."

Some political experts suggest that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba selected Mr. Koizumi to tackle Japan's rice problems because he was seen as a maverick capable of disrupting entrenched policies. Two decades ago, Mr. Koizumi's father, Junichiro Koizumi, did similarly as prime minister when he pushed through legislation to privatize Japan's postal system.

Shinjiro Koizumi, who was educated in Japan and at Columbia University in New York, has long been regarded as a fresh force within the Liberal Democrats. The party's current cabinet has an average age over 60, among the oldest of major economies.

When Mr. Koizumi was appointed environment minister in 2019, he was one of the youngest to join Japan's cabinet. Around that time, he set off a media frenzy when he married the television announcer Christel Takigawa and became the first minister to take paternity leave.

Through the years, Mr. Koizumi has become known for his penchant for pithy and sometimes poetic pronouncements. These have at times landed effectively and at other times drawn scorn, such as his 2019 declaration that tackling climate change needed to be made "sexy."

A representative for Mr. Koizumi declined to make him available for an interview.

Within days of assuming his post in May, Mr. Koizumi set about changing the way the government was distributing strategic rice stockpiles. Instead of the usual method, which went through auctions and agricultural cooperatives, he sold the rice reserves directly to retailers. He also declared himself Japan's "rice minister."

In July, cheaper bags of rice from strategic stockpiles helped bring the average retail price of an 11-pound bag down to about $24 -- its lowest point in about five months.

By releasing cheaper stockpiled rice, Mr. Koizumi "showed some success" in his first months, said Katsuhito Fuyuki, a professor of agricultural economics at Tohoku University. Still, while it was a "good emergency measure," it didn't help bring down prices of the "brand" rices that are typically available in stores, Mr. Fuyuki said.

Now, voters want to know Mr. Koizumi's plans beyond the summer, when stockpile releases are set to end, Mr. Fuyuki said. Until Mr. Koizumi clarifies how he plans to solve the root of the supply issues, Mr. Fuyuki said, "people will remain dissatisfied."

Mr. Fuyuki and other rice policy experts say addressing the country's rice shortages more permanently would require Mr. Koizumi to overhaul policies that have been in place for decades and that seek to maintain high rice prices by paying farmers to produce less.

Proponents say the system helps protect farmers as the Japanese population shrinks and consumes less rice. It is overseen by Japan's agricultural cooperatives, which serve as a cornerstone of the Liberal Democratic Party's enduring dominance, particularly in rural areas, where they help mobilize farmer votes.

In news conferences, Mr. Koizumi has stopped short of explicitly calling for an end to the incentives offered to farmers for cutting back production of rice. However, he has stated that no "sacred cows" should exist when formulating future plans. On Wednesday, Mr. Koizumi said he expected Japan would produce hundreds of thousands of tons more rice this year than last.

He has avoided indicating that Japan would depart from its policy of levying substantial tariffs on rice imports exceeding its annual tax-free quota. This has been a demand of the Trump administration in its negotiations around new tariffs.

The public has mostly approved of Mr. Koizumi's performance as agriculture minister so far, according to Mr. Makihara, the professor at the University of Tokyo. Mr. Koizumi has "shown growth" and could very well become prime minister if he becomes more informed and continues to build political experience," Mr. Makihara said.

But his popularity is not likely to be enough to spare the Liberal Democrats from losing seats in the election. In the end, "it's not just about rice," Mr. Makihara said. "It's the lack of trust and the overall sense of burden people feel."