How Trump's Endorsement in California Could Backfire Against Republicans

How Trump's Endorsement in California Could Backfire Against Republicans
Source: The New York Times

For months, California Democrats have worried about a doomsday scenario of two Republicans shutting them out of the governor's race. President Trump, in one social media post, may have solved their problem.

By endorsing Steve Hilton in California's June primary, Mr. Trump likely drove Republican voters toward one candidate and reduced the likelihood that their party will take both spots in the general election. That would help Democrats ensure they advance a candidate under the state's nonpartisan primary system.

The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot run again because of term limits, has been unusually messy this year. The large field includes eight prominent Democrats and two well-known Republicans.

Mr. Hilton has been running neck and neck with fellow Republican Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, and the Democratic vote has been so fractured that no clear front-runner has emerged. Despite California being a deep blue state, several polls showed the two Republicans as the top two candidates, a scenario that had increasingly panicked Democrats.

So some Republicans were surprised that Mr. Trump waded into the contest late Sunday night.

"We generally had two fairly evenly matched Republican candidates, which is what you want in a perfect world to have the top two work out for the minority party," said Matt Rexroad, a Republican political consultant in California. "Now this really does tip the scales in favor of Hilton."

In a Truth Social post, Mr. Trump wrote that he had known and respected Mr. Hilton for many years. He criticized Democrats' leadership of California and said that he would work with Mr. Hilton to make the state "better than ever before."

Mr. Hilton disagreed with the notion that Mr. Trump's endorsement would help Democrats.

He said in an interview that he never believed that Democrats would allow two Republicans to sweep the top spots, and that Mr. Trump's endorsement "keeps the hope of change" alive in California, where a Republican has not won statewide office in 20 years.

"It makes it more likely that Californians will have a real choice in November," he said.

Mr. Hilton, a former Fox News host, said his relationship with Mr. Trump dated back to the president's first term, when Mr. Hilton interviewed the president for his show. They periodically stayed in touch, and Mr. Hilton said he attended Mr. Trump's 2024 campaign stops in California.

Mr. Hilton said he learned of the endorsement when he saw the president's social media post.

He sent Mr. Trump a text message to express his thanks. After, they had a quick phone call during which they agreed the race was "going to be very difficult," Mr. Hilton said, adding that he believed winning was still possible.

Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said that the president had backed "another loser" in Mr. Hilton and that his decision to engage in the race seemed like "the exact wrong thing to do" strategically for a Republican.

"But, hey, he's made dumb choices the world over and continues to do so almost every single day," Mr. Hicks said.

Mr. Hicks has been trying to thin the field of Democrats in an effort to coalesce party support behind a front-runner. But the lowest-polling Democratic candidates have not dropped out. So, in some ways, Mr. Trump may help achieve what Mr. Hicks has been unable to. It was the second time in several days that a move by Mr. Trump or his administration had the potential to shape the California race.

Last week, news broke that Trump administration officials had ordered F.B.I. agents to gather documents about a decade-old investigation into one of the highest-polling Democratic candidates for governor, Representative Eric Swalwell. The investigation, into Mr. Swalwell's ties to a suspected Chinese spy, resulted in no criminal charges. But law enforcement officials told The Times that they feared the documents could be released to damage Mr. Swalwell, a prominent critic of Mr. Trump.

Mr. Swalwell's lawyers sent the F.B.I. a cease-and-desist letter seeking to prevent the release of the investigation.

But some California strategists have suggested the move could actually help Mr. Swalwell among Democratic voters by elevating his anti-Trump profile. And Mr. Swalwell has highlighted the episode in several social media posts and television appearances, portraying himself as the president’s chief antagonist.

Recent polls have shown Mr. Swalwell in a statistical tie with two other Democrats, former Representative Katie Porter and Tom Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund manager. He also recently received endorsements from two influential labor unions, the California Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union.

Mr. Bianco, the sheriff who captured national attention recently for seizing ballots in Riverside County, said in a social media post that he was not deterred by losing the president’s endorsement.

“For too long, politicians and insiders from Sacramento to Washington have tried to pick our leaders for us. That’s not leadership; that’s a coronation—and it’s exactly how we ended up with the failed leadership Californians are living with today,” he said in an Instagram video.

“This election belongs to the people, not the political class.”