April 9 - The Iran war is ending. Or so the White House says. The last-minute ceasefire this week in a conflict that has convulsed capitals from Washington to Brussels to Tehran has left several key issues up in the air. What does it mean politically? And will it last?
Last week, President Donald Trump stepped inside a Washington theater, the lights dimmed and Broadway performers crooned about how to wow an audience.
"Razzle dazzle 'em, and they'll beg you for more," goes one of the songs, from "Chicago." "Give 'em an act with lots of flash in it, and the reaction will be passionate."
It's not clear what Trump may have taken from the Jazz Age musical. But Trump's own mastery of spectacle has been key to his decades in public life.
It's a political gift being tested by a war with Iran that has divided the nation, his political base and the NATO alliance.
Trump again demonstrated his ability to dominate the public conversation this week. His press conference on Monday refocused attention on the war to a daring rescue of an airman stranded deep inside enemy territory.
His profanity-laced tirade on Easter and his later eleventh-hour decision to call off what he described as a civilization-ending attack on Iran transfixed and alarmed people around the globe. A Trump administration official told my colleague that Trump's most charged rhetoric came from the president himself as he sought to create leverage through unpredictability.
The president's ability to control the facts on the ground has been far more tenuous than his ability to shape the narrative. Despite achieving tactical military wins in Iran, the United States could still fall short of his declared goals.
In the two days since Trump declared the ceasefire, no one has released a comprehensive document detailing the agreement's terms. Neither side agrees on what the deal is precisely. Iran has not publicly conceded Washington's key demands and the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open to traffic. Tehran has not publicly agreed to halt its nuclear program nor to stop arming groups abroad.
At home, Americans remain skeptical of a war that has dragged into a sixth week and further eroded Trump's job approval rating. U.S. gas prices are set to remain elevated through the crucial summertime driving season.
The unfinished work in the Middle East has exposed the limits - and risks - of Trump's strategy of making apocalyptic threats and backing down. Critics mocked what they saw as another example of "TACO," or "Trump always chickens out," and even some of Trump's fellow Republicans openly expressed concern about the president's chilling rhetoric.
There's no doubt that Trump's showmanship can control attention. But as the gap between his rhetoric and an unstable Middle East expands, he may leave his audience asking what's real.
What ceasefire?
That's a question on the minds of residents of Lebanon. The two-week truce in the Iran war has provided no end to an Israeli bombing campaign there. Both Iran and ceasefire mediator Pakistan understood that the ceasefire agreement included Lebanon, where Iran's Hezbollah allies are entrenched. The White House and Israel said that was not the case.
If the ceasefire agreement unravels, Lebanon may be the reason. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees Iran and affiliated groups across the region as in retreat but not fully defeated. By creating "buffer zones" in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, he hopes to push them back as far as possible. But it also means a semi-permanent state of war, Israeli military and defense officials told my colleagues in Jerusalem. Washington may be dragged back into the Middle East for years to come.
What to watch for
- April 9: Rev. Al Sharpton's National Action Network hosts potential 2028 Democratic candidates
- April 11: US, Iran may meet for negotiations in Islamabad
- April 13: Trump meets with Dutch King Willem-Alexander
- April 16: Election to fill seat vacated by New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)
- April 17: Trump speaks at Turning Point USA event in Phoenix
The who, what and when
Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Alistair Bell
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.