finance

Iran's Death Toll Gets Bleaker by the Day

Source: Bloomberg Business

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Today's Agenda

Iran's struggles run deep.
Ending ICE's power creep.
Extra things don't come cheap.
Saks goes bust, could Macy's reap?

Iran Update

In a bleak illustration of how quickly the situation in Iran is deteriorating, Marc Champion's column from early this morning has already been eclipsed by new numbers. "By Jan. 13, security forces had already killed at least 734 protesters based on reports from just 10% of hospitals and half the nation's provinces, according to Iran Human Rights, a Norway-based non-profit, estimating that the true figure is in the thousands," he wrote. Now, that figure is in the thousands, having almost quintupled overnight to 3,428:

Just 18 days into the protests, the number of killings has already surpassed the combined total of extrajudicial executions recorded between 2020 and 2024. One conclusion to be drawn from all this violence is that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is losing sway over his people. Having helmed all but 10 of the Islamic Republic's 46 years, most of the revolution's true believers are either dead or aging out. "The remaining tools he had for controlling most of his citizens without killing or jailing them have been swept away," Marc writes. What's left is brute force.

At the same time, Marc says the economy is in free fall, thanks to the "corrupt, kleptocratic and militarized" political system that puts money in the pockets of Khamenei's inner circle. Modest attempts by President Masoud Pezeshkian to ease social rules for women have been drowned out by a collapsing currency, inflation angst and Western sanctions, all of which have catalyzed people to take to the streets:

This moment amounts to "a final undressing of Khamenei's totalitarian system," Marc argues. Yet it may take more than an undressing to topple the republic. "I'd like to agree with Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz, when he said on Tuesday that Khamenei and his republic must now be in their 'final days and weeks' because governments that must rely on force are by definition in their last gasps," Marc writes. "History, however, suggests that same violence can keep them in power for years, even decades."

ICE Update

Elsewhere in depressing news, the Department of Justice has decided it isn't going to investigate the fatal shooting of 37-year-old Minneapolis mother Renee Good. "A decent response to Good's death would've been to speak of it respectfully as an avoidable tragedy, support a full and fair investigation, and learn from its findings how to avoid more such killings," writes the Bloomberg editorial board. Does the administration have any sense of decency left, the editors ask?: "In the days after the shooting, the administration repeatedly misrepresented what happened, and it has since failed to correct the record." The editors call such behavior against a dead US citizen "reprehensible."

It's difficult to imagine that anything positive could come out of this tragedy, but Ronald Brownstein believes meaningful immigration reform could be one outcome. Last week's killing "underscored how frequently the agency's operations are now escalating into violence -- not only against undocumented immigrants but against US citizens exercising their First Amendment rights," he writes. Given the forceful approach, you'd think the administration would be seeing results, but Ronald says the arrest figures are "surprisingly modest;" evidence that "the iron fist alone can never resolve America's immigration challenges."

The bipartisan Dignity Act "offers an off-ramp from Trump's inflammatory course," writes Ronald. "It would mandate that employers nationwide verify the immigration status of employees. And it would significantly restrict the process of applying for asylum. But it would also create a long-term legal status that would allow most undocumented immigrants without a criminal record to remain in the US."

Bonus Washington Reading:

White House efforts to undermine the midterms are gathering steam. -- Mary Ellen Klas
Maybe Trump's affordability speeches aren't such a good idea. -- Nia-Malika Henderson

Telltale Commerce Charts

Beth Kowitt has an excellent rundown on what she calls the "à la carte economy," where companies unbundle products and services to make it seem like you're paying less upfront, only to charge you extra for all sorts of things down the line. The result of said drip pricing? "Consumers are having vastly different experiences even within the same spaces," Beth writes. You can blame airlines for that. After 9/11, Beth says air carriers needed to find ways to increase their revenue. Enter: tacked-on fees for meals, pillows and checked bags. It's a practice that continues to this day: In 2026, Thomas Black says "Delta plans to raise seat capacity by 3% -- all of which will be at the premium part of the plane -- and will continue to whittle down debt."

Welp! Saks Global, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman and -- as of last year -- Neiman Marcus, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Wednesday. Can't say I'm all too surprised. Vendors had been complaining about overdue payments for months and horror stories about Saks’ customer service and quality control -- a can of tuna fish was accidentally shipped to a customer -- were mounting. But what's bad for Saks could be good for Bloomingdale’s owner Macy’s. “Tony Spring, a seasoned merchant who became Macy’s chief executive officer two years ago,” says Andrea Felsted. “Now, he should seize the moment to expand and elevate Bloomingdale’s, which—with Saks likely to be a shadow of its former self—could become the premier luxury department store in the US.”

ICYMI

The FBI searched a journalist's home.
San Francisco is the land of free childcare.
CEO's have a playbook for Trump.
Sting paid his former bandmates.

Kickers

The new way to drink.
Brooklyn's Bojangles renaissance.
Catching up with Becky Pepper-Jackson.

Notes: Please send Bo-Tato Rounds and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.