Japan's Opposition Parties Eye Merger as Snap Election Looms

Japan's Opposition Parties Eye Merger as Snap Election Looms
Source: Bloomberg Business

Komeito is considering forgoing fielding candidacies in single-seat districts and urging supporters to vote for CDP runners instead, and will focus on winning more proportional representation votes.

Japan's largest opposition party and a former ruling coalition partner are in discussions to cooperate more deeply in an upcoming election, with an eye on a potential merger, according to local media.

The leaders of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition group, and Komeito, a smaller party that exited a long-time coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party just months ago, are set to meet on Thursday to discuss collaboration in a snap election expected early February, according to the Asahi newspaper.

A new party formed under a merger of the CDP and Komeito could prove to be a formidable opposition force against Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is staking a greater public mandate on her own popularity by calling an early election.

"We've agreed with Komeito that the upcoming dissolution of parliament doesn't have a legitimate rationale," said Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the CDP in a post on X Tuesday. "We've shared our intentions to bring together centrist forces that have the ability to form a government, and confirmed that we'll cooperate at a high level."

Komeito provided key votes to the LDP during its partnership by mobilizing votes through its backing organization, the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai. The combined forces of the CDP and Komeito may tip the scales against the ruling bloc in some constituencies in an upcoming election.

Komeito is considering forgoing fielding candidacies in single-seat districts and urging supporters to vote for CDP runners instead, according to the Sankei newspaper. The party will focus instead on winning more proportional representation votes, the report said.

"Komeito has consistently said that it will draw a clear line against populism, and that it will advance responsible reforms that put people's lives first -- what we call 'centrist reform'," said Tetsuo Saito, the head of Komeito in a post on X Wednesday.

Japan's lower house seats are a mix of seats won through single-seat districts and proportional representation seats allocated to parties. Although small as a political force, the votes of Komeito supporters were enough to push some LDP candidates over the winning line in some single-seat districts, according to local media estimates.

Such estimates put the number of seats the LDP could have lost in the previous 2024 lower house election without Komeito's help at anywhere between 20% and 40% of the 132 seats it ultimately won. The Nikkei newspaper estimated that the LDP would have lost about 25 seats, while broadcaster JNN said the LDP could have lost up to 32.