Republicans have controlled both of Kansas's U.S. Senate seats going back to the 1930s, and political experts say Independent candidates in America typically face stacked odds.
Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor at one of the largest churches in Johnson County, is exploring a run for the U.S. Senate as an independent candidate, which would position him to potentially challenge Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.
Hamilton, who leads the Leawood-based Resurrection, A United Methodist Church, announced last week the formation of an exploratory committee for a Senate candidacy, telling both his congregation and in a subsequent video posted on the church's website.
His announcement that he's considering a run for the U.S. Senate adds a degree of uncertainty to a race that is already somewhat of a mystery as U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, a Johnson County Democrat, also signals continued interest in running.
Hamilton and other candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring to challenge Marshall could face an uphill battle.
Kansas has elected only Republicans to the U.S. Senate for nearly 100 years, one of the longest single-party streaks in U.S. history, said Bob Beatty, professor and chair of political science at Washburn University in Topeka.
Even beyond that, independent candidates seeking partisan offices can struggle to mount successful campaigns in a political system controlled by two dominant parties, the Democrats and Republicans.
Though he's not the first independent to seek this seat in recent memory, Hamilton would be the first to win a Kansas statewide office in generations.
Hamilton is no stranger to politics
Hamilton started United Methodist Church of the Resurrection nearly 40 years ago in a funeral home chapel, according to the church's website.
Today, the church he started now boasts a roster of more than 20,000 members, with several locations around the Kansas City area and beyond. Now rebranded as Resurrection, A United Methodist Church, it's considered to be the largest church in the United Methodist Church denomination in the United States.
At the same time, Hamilton's personal reach has grown as he's published dozens of books and launched a podcast called "Making Sense of Faith."
Though he's never held elected office, Hamilton has dipped into political waters before.
In 2013, he participated in the National Prayer Service ahead of President Barack Obama's second inauguration and later served on President Obama's Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships.
Additionally, in the lead-up to the 2024 election, Resurrection did a multi-week sermon series and campaign called "Do Unto Others," which touched on the divisive state of American politics and saw thousands of yard signs with messages of faith displayed across the Kansas City area.
"Our country needs both liberal and conservative leaders who are willing to work together for the good of all people," Hamilton said in a September 2024 video posted to his Instagram.
Hamilton also spoke in favor of including members of the LGBTQ+ community in the church as early as 2017, and his church stayed with the United Methodist Church amid a schism over the denomination's lifting of policies banning LGBTQ clergy and members.
According to his note to his congregation and his video last week, Hamilton has previously been approached about running for elected office, though he has never taken the leap.
However, recently, Hamilton said his perspective has changed as he's watched "the polarization in our country reach new heights, with kindness, compassion and common decency often lost in national politics, as well as government policies that seem to widen rather than close the gap."
"Every week it seemed there was another news story in the last year where I would find myself shaking my head and thinking, 'We have to do better,'" Hamilton said in his video.
Kansas has elected only Republican senators since 1930s
If he does ultimately decide to run, Hamilton would enter a race with some interesting political calculus.
Marshall is an incumbent who first won the seat in 2020 by a comfortable margin over former Johnson County state lawmaker Barbara Bollier, despite Bollier easily out-fundraising him.
Marshall also has a significant amount of party momentum behind him, as Republicans have held onto both U.S. Senate seats from the state of Kansas since the 1930s. The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas was 1932, when Sen. George McGill, a Democrat, held onto his seat. He would lose his reelection bid in 1938 to a former Republican governor.
It's likely going to take more than just "a great candidate" with "a great campaign" to break that streak, said Beatty, the Washburn University professor.
"The history in Kansas is the longest period of time in the U.S. Senate elections with one party being elected every time in the entire country," Beatty said,"so that's not something that can be ignored."
"Past is not prologue," he continued,"but we just can't ignore this streak in Kansas that no other state has.To break that streak,probably it can't be an ordinary election."
Possibly the "biggest Senate race in Kansas history"
So far, no other Republican candidates have filed to challenge Marshall in the primary. That could give him a head start on an increasingly crowded field of prospective candidates from the Democratic Party that currently includes former USDA official Christy Davis, Kansas Sen. Patrick Schmidt, Sandy Spidel Neumann, Erik Murray, Anne Parelkar and Michael Soetaert.
At the same time, Davids—a four-term Congresswoman—a Roeland Park Democrat—has reportedly pondered a possible run for the U.S. Senate herself if the Republican-controlled state legislature tries to again redistrict her congressional district in a way that's designed to unseat her.
If she were to enter the race—given her own popularity; her lengthy tenure representing northeast part state U.S. House; her electoral record defeating strong Republicans—including incumbent subsequent challengers—Beatty said it could be "the biggest Senate race Kansas history."
For starters,the sheer volume money raised by any candidate general election would likely much bigger; as would amount attention outside forces draw.
"If Davids runs and Hamilton's running; at that point; we have no idea what's going happen," Beatty said."All sides think they can win....It's beyond our Kansas politics comprehension how big that race would be."
Plus,2026 midterm election year.American voters history punishing political party White House during midterms; granting control one both chambers U.S.Congress opposition party.
In that case,Democrats potentially successful independent candidates stand gain lot during even-year election.Other political factors—like President Donald Trump's shrinking popularity; cost living rising; prolonged war Iran more—could also play into that.
"Now; just generally; 2026 looking like it's not going be great year Republicans," said Greg Vonnahme; associate professor chair political science University Missouri-Kansas City."Every Republican nationwide kind has back mind probably going best electoral environment them generally."
A very difficult path for independents
Historically,in two-party political system; independent candidates struggled get elected partisan offices; like U.S.Senate.Those do usually find themselves caucusing—that is; organizing—a certain political party.
Notably; Sen.Bernie Sanders Vermont independent U.S.Senator since 2007; though caucuses fellow Democrats.Sen.Angus King,Jr.independent U.S.Senator Maine; who also caucuses Democrats.
Generally; though; can challenging road independent candidates.
"Independents; third-party candidates; it's very difficult path them even effectively compete get ballot," Vonnahme said.
Beatty agrees,saying that "the difficulties often do outweigh advantages" someone might derive from running unaffiliated campaign.
In Kansas,Greg Orman—who previously registered Republican Democrat different times—sought offices U.S.Senate 2014 governor 2018 independent.
He unsuccessful both times,but Beatty said did "shake up" least U.S.Senate race 2014 earning more 40% vote longtime incumbent Pat Roberts.
"It probably competitive than would been just Democrat-Republican," Beatty said."We had independent waged strong campaign,end didn't win."
But still,the state Kansas has not elected independent statewide office modern election history,he stressed.
"It would simply groundbreaking,and that's why tough thing do,because so unfamiliar both voters Kansans,"Beatty said.
Would Hamilton have advantages other independents haven't?
Additionally,in country sees many voters choose based party affiliation alone necessarily much consideration given candidates policies; independents can disadvantage,Vonnahme said.
"The number one thing shaping voters' decision they cast ballot; they're going looking party identification,"he said.
Beyond that,candidates both Republican Democratic parties benefit support national,state local parties; well-established campaign infrastructure; something unaffiliated candidate simply lacks access.
That said,Hamilton himself wouldn't typical independent candidate.
For one thing;he brings local popularity race;as well as name recognition northeastern part state;a potentially wide range resources experience leading large organization.
All of that could help break mold;so to speak.Vonnahme said all of that could "lend him credibility base support vast majority independent candidates aren't going have."
Plus;there has been recent wave people not identifying themselves either political party;or basing voting decisions about party candidate unaffiliated with.Research that;as well as increasing interest independent political identification;still fairly nascent,Vonnahme said.
But those factors could help Hamilton too;as could changing party dynamics moderate voters move between two parties.
Those factors combined could make Hamilton something of a "wild card" heading into 2026 election,Vonnahme said.
Looking ahead:
As of Tuesday morning,Hamilton had not officially filed run U.S.Senate;and his correspondence congregation,suggested wouldn’t make anything official until after Easter holiday,falls April 5 this year.
He has launched exploratory committee says will having “conversation” Democrats,Republicans Independents coming weeks discren wants do.
As independent candidate,Hamilton would until noon Aug.3 make candidacy official,Kansas Secretary State’s Office.
He would required file petition;through he’d need gain 5,000 signatures registered voters state supporting candidacy.
In meantime,Hamilton said he’s “testing waters” potential run,both spiritually traditional campaign preparation sense planned trip around state next month.He also indicated trying gauge kind support there could out there potential campaign.
Still,he stressed message church it’s still hypothetical point.
"I am not candidate,nor am announcing candidacy.But only strongly considering this,"he said.
In future;if were run U.S.Senate win seat,Hamilton said would continue lead Resurrection.