Krystal Biotech Inc. will report fourth-quarter results before the bell Tuesday, with investors eager to see whether the gene therapy company's commercial momentum can match the growing excitement around its clinical pipeline.
Analysts expect earnings of $1.58 a share on revenue of $106.16 million for the quarter ended December. That would represent revenue growth of roughly 8.5% from the prior quarter's $97.8 million, continuing the commercial ramp of Vyjuvek, the company's gene therapy for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa. The rare-disease treatment has been a commercial success since its U.S. launch, and Vyjuvek is now approved in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
In November, Krystal delivered a blowout third-quarter performance, posting earnings of $2.66 a share versus the $1.09 consensus -- a 144% surprise. The expected decline to $1.58 in the current quarter likely reflects normalization rather than weakness, analysts say.
EPS estimates have remained flat over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have edged down slightly by 0.79% over the same period, signaling modest caution but overall forecast stability. All 10 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, with a mean price target of $284.44, implying roughly 3% upside from current levels near $270.
What Investors Are Watching
Beyond the quarterly numbers, attention is squarely on Krystal's pipeline expansion. Goldman Sachs noted that investor focus is "increasingly turning to KRYS's future growth levers," highlighting three registrational programs that could result in product launches in 2028: KB803 for ocular DEB, KB801 for neurotrophic keratitis, and KB407 for cystic fibrosis.
Clear Street called KB801 "the most consistent excitement among investors," noting the program’s potential in the neurotrophic keratitis market, where the current standard of care generates over $1 billion annually. The firm raised its price target to $338, now modeling $2 billion in peak sales. Top-line data for KB801 is expected before year-end 2026, making it a critical catalyst.
Meanwhile, TD Cowen highlighted interim Phase 1/2 data for KB407 in cystic fibrosis showing "robust 29%+ transduction" after dosing, with the company planning to align with the FDA on a potentially expedited registrational trial design in the first quarter. Enrollment is expected to begin in the second quarter.
Geographic expansion of Vyjuvek also remains in focus. The company called 2025 "a standout year" with successful launches in Europe and Japan, and pricing negotiations in Germany are expected to conclude favorably in the second half of 2026.
With a market capitalization above $8 billion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio north of 40, Krystal trades at a premium. Whether the company can justify that valuation will depend not just on Vyjuvek's continued growth but on proving its HSV-1 gene therapy platform can deliver multiple commercial products. Management has set a goal of bringing at least four marketed rare-disease medicines to over 10,000 patients worldwide by the end of 2030.