President Donald Trump's main outside political group, MAGA Inc., has amassed more than $300 million heading into November's midterm elections. It's just not clear he's willing to tap that fortune to keep vulnerable Republicans in Congress.
With public frustration over the Iran War adding to mounting GOP hurdles, Trump's unprecedented cash pile looms larger than ever in Republican hopes of minimizing potential midterm losses in the House and Senate. Trump has conceded that his party may lose the House, but he's also signaled that keeping Congress is a nearly-existential requirement.
"Money talks," said Matt Gorman, a longtime Republican strategist and chief communications officer at Targeted Victory. "You lose the House and you're staring a third impeachment in the face, and you lose the Senate, you can't get your nominees through confirmation."
Despite that, several Trump advisers and Republican strategists who asked not to be identified discussing confidential issues say they don't know how willing the president will be to pour money into congressional campaigns when he's already suggested that history shows the party in power loses seats in midterms.
Trump's Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, deputy Chief of Staff James Blair, former campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio are driving the midterms strategy. The group met in West Palm Beach, Florida, last month to review the state of the various House and Senate races, according to a person familiar with that session.
So far, MAGA Inc.'s spending has been limited: It injected $1.7 million into a special House election in Tennessee last year to shore up Matt Van Epps' candidacy in what has long been a solid-Republican district. It has spent just $17,900 in 2026, backing Clay Fuller in a crowded Georgia race this week to fill the seat of former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Fuller advanced to a runoff in April.
No one expects the Trump-aligned groups to spend the bulk of their stockpile before the summer and fall when the races really heat up. Yet Trump also hasn't given any indication about how much he intends to spend to defend the Republican majority -- and he alone will make that determination.
Republican officials are also waiting on a decision from the Supreme Court that could potentially strike down limits on the amount of money national parties can spend in coordination with individual candidates. That case could upend the landscape of campaign spending and change how all the Trump and Republican entities spend money, according to two Republican officials.
Trump will travel to vulnerable Republican House districts to boost voter turnout, though he hasn't made clear whether financial support for those efforts will come from MAGA Inc. or other fundraising entities, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified.
Privately, several of Trump's advisers believe they will lose the House and very narrowly hold onto the Senate. A senior White House official pushed back on that view and said Republicans will hold onto both chambers.
Trump "is committed to maintaining Republicans' majority in Congress," said Olivia Wales, a White House spokeswoman.
Adding to the doubts, the president has seldom been interested in individual lawmakers, two allies say, apart from seeing the House as a tool to exercise power and a means of self-preservation.
MAGA Inc. isn't obliged to spend all its money. If it hangs onto its cash, it could donate it to nonprofits, including Trump's presidential library, and other groups that promote the president's legacy and agenda. It could also choose to intervene in the 2028 GOP primaries. One thing it couldn't do is give the cash to Trump.
Yet even with the midterms more than seven months away, there are reasons why the super PAC might want to spend money sooner.
Trump's 2024 coalition has shown signs of erosion in elections that have taken place since November. In addition, internal GOP polling shows a startling decline in Trump's approval rating over the past two months, according to one Republican strategist briefed on the polling.
Cost-of-living issues were already the top concern of voters before the Iran War caused fuel prices to spike. Yet Trump has gone from describing affordability concerns as a Democratic "hoax" last year to proclaiming more recently that he has already "won" on the economy.
"You notice you don't hear that word anymore," Trump told Republican lawmakers March 9 in Doral, Florida, referring to "affordability." "They don't say it anymore because we brought down prices."
That isn't a view voters share. In recent elections from Miami to New Jersey, Democratic candidates outperformed expectations. In the Texas primaries this month, Hispanic voters who helped Trump win in 2024 turned out en masse to back state Representative James Talarico in the Democratic primary.
"The biggest problem for Trump and Republicans is that they are telling voters that things are better when voters don't feel better," said Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster and president of Impact Research. "They, frankly, have the problems Democrats had in 2024, which is owning the economy that isn't working for people."
To be sure, figuring out how to spend $300 million is a nice problem to have in politics. Republicans hold a significant financial advantage over Democrats for the midterms.
Including MAGA Inc., Trump's political committees and the Republican National Committee amassed $483 million through the end of December, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission. That's nearly triple the $167 million collectively held by the Democratic National Committee and its related party committees and super PACs.
"Republicans have outraised Democrats and are well positioned," said MAGA Inc. spokesman Alex Pfeiffer. "MAGA Inc. is more than ready to defeat high-tax Democrats and elect America First Republicans this November."
The president has continued to raise money prolifically, even though legally he cannot run for president again. He recently held a dinner fundraiser for MAGA Inc. at his Mar-a-Lago resort and will participate in another one on Saturday, according to the White House.
To juice enthusiasm for congressional Republicans, especially when Trump isn't on the ballot, the party plans to hold a midterm convention. Trump allies expect it to occur in early September in Las Vegas, Charlotte or Dallas, but there has been disagreement among his aides on the best location or whether they should even have a convention.
Allies like the convention idea because it allows Trump to call attention to key congressional races without requiring him to travel extensively. Getting him out on the road regularly was a challenge for aides in 2024. Wiles vowed in January that Trump would be traveling domestically "every week" to tout his economic agenda, a pace that hasn't materialized.
Even when he does hit the road, White House aides struggle to keep him focused on affordability, unnerving lawmakers who want him to hone in on the issue and offer them more support.
In a March 11 speech in Kentucky, Trump seemed more enthusiastic about criticizing Republican Representative Thomas Massie, a frequent foe on some of his highest-profile priorities, than talking about the economy.