U.S. equity index futures are up slightly following a weak session that ended the Nasdaq's 13-day win streak, with geopolitical tensions back in focus as a fragile ceasefire nears expiry and President Trump saying its highly unlikely it'll be extended; the S&P 500 (-0.2% to 7,109) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.3% to 26,590) finished lower, the Dow 30 (0% to 49,442) flat, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.6% to 2,792) outperformed to a fresh all-time high; Treasury yields moved slightly higher save for the furthest end of the curve as traders note Middle East developments and today's Warsh nomination hearing, and market pricing (CME's FedWatch) moves back to roughly a coin toss on hold vs 25bp rate cut out of the Fed in December.
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (+0.2%) finished slightly higher in what was a mixed session for semiconductors as AMD (-1.2%), and more so Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (-4.1%) finished lower, with big gains for Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) (+5.8%) on a report (from The Information) of a potential AI chip collaboration with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (-1.3%), and hurting rival Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) (-1.7%) due to its existing relationship with the tech giant.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares (-2%) suffered a red start to the week, with traders bracing for tomorrow's earnings release.
Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) (-0.9%) closed lower but jumped 2.4% in extended trading; to invest $25bn into Anthropic which is in addition to its previous $8bn with the latter committed to spending more than $100bn on AWS tech including its custom AI chips over the next decade; BoA Securities hikes its price target on Amazon and maintains its buy rating, citing stronger expectations for its AWS growth ahead of its earnings release later this month.
Airline and cruise line stocks were back under pressure amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions raising both fuel cost concerns and demand uncertainty, with the losses largest for American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) (-4.2%) as it dismissed talk of merging with United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) (-2.8%).
Energy stocks were slightly stronger as crude gapped higher: APA (+0.6%), Coterra Energy (+1.7%), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) (+0.4%), EOG Resources (+0.6%), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) (+1.6%), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) (+0.9%).
Strong gains for TopBuild (+19.4%) after agreeing to be acquired by QXO (-3.1%) in a $17bn deal, shares of the latter falling on the announcement.
Tough session for shares of AST SpaceMobile (-5.3%) after the weekend satellite launch placed it in the wrong orbit.
Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) (+3.4%) shares finished higher sealing a deal for worldwide rights to develop and market an experimental treatment for immune-related diseases, and got upgraded by Wells Fargo to overweight which included a 25% price target hike; upgrade out of Barclays to overweight for Okta (+4.9%) sees its shares climb as well.
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) (-0.8%) in slight retreat after it agreed to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for $7bn in total.
Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (+41%), Krispy Kreme (+8.6%), BlackBerry (+13.2%), Nokia (+2.8%).
Gap gets filled in gold before falling back below $4.8K with an eye on geopolitical risks and its impact on the dollar and yields, while silver breaks beneath $79 preventing the gold/silver ratio from dropping further.
Oil prices (WTI) edge lower into the $86s though yet to fill the weekend gap as report emerges Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks, with traders noting the looming ceasefire deadline injected uncertainty; continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and an ongoing blockade remain central drivers of supply concerns and market volatility, keeping upside risks elevated even as prices pull back modestly; Citi says global crude and product inventories could be down 900m barrels even if a ceasefire extension is agreed by both sides and flows through the strait fully recover by June; EIA says strategic global oil inventory was around 2.5bn barrels at the end of 2025.
Bitcoin falls back below $76K and hovering near the lower end of its short-term bull channel as latest weekly CoinShares ETF report shows healthy inflows again and so too for Ether with the latter’s price barely above $2.3K this morning; Strategy disclosed a $2.5bn BTC purchase last week taking its total stash above 815K.
US Dollar Index slips below the 98 handle, reversing earlier strength as risk sentiment stabilizes following weekend geopolitical escalation, with Warsh’s nomination hearing and ceasefire expiry upcoming significant factors.
Federal Reserve's Chair nominee Warsh stresses the need for Fed independence and a narrow focus on core mandates, arguing the central bank must "stay in its lane" and avoid policy overreach into fiscal or social domains while maintaining a strong anti-inflation stance.
European Central Bank's Lagarde warns the Strait of Hormuz disruption represents a significant and highly uncertain energy shock for Europe, highlighting upside inflation risks, potential spillovers into broader supply chains, and reaffirming the ECB's commitment to price stability while urging only targeted, temporary fiscal responses.
Indices: Raise their long bias in the S&P (to 61% from 59%) following the gap lower and so too in the Nasdaq (though still minority long at 48% from 46% yesterday), while outperformance in the Russell causes a shift in sentiment (from a majority long 55% to a slight sell 51%); elsewhere long bias climbs in the DAX (to 63% from 58%) and so too the FTSE (to a heavier 74% from 70%) and Nikkei (62% from 56%).
Commodities: Heavy buy and rising in gold (to 75% from 73% yesterday) following the gap lower and pushes further into extreme buy territory in silver (81% from 78%); WTI's gap higher and small pullback raises heavy long sentiment a couple notches (to 67% from 65%).
FX: Shifts in GBP/USD (from a slight sell 52% to a slight buy 52%), USD/JPY (from a slight buy 52% to a slight sell 53%), and on the verge of doing so in GBP/JPY (slight sell 51% from 53% yesterday).
Canadian CPI m/m for March rises 0.9% vs 1.1% expected, y/y reading rises to 2.4% from 1.8% but also below forecast.
German PPI for March jumps 2.5% m/m well above 1.4% expectations, y/y PPI climbs notably from -3.3% to -0.2%.
U.S. retail sales (4:30 pm Dubai time), Kevin Warsh to testify before the Senate Banking Committee (6pm), pending home sales, API's weekly energy inventory readings (1:30am)
Earnings from GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, RTX, and others
U.K. labour data (10am), German ZEW economic sentiment (1pm)