Miami vs. Indiana College Football National Championship Market At Kalshi
Traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings list the Hoosiers as 8.5-point favorites, and they're also the clear favorites at prediction markets like Kalshi, as you can see above.
Trading activity at Kalshi moved Indiana's chance from around 44 percent entering its semifinal matchup with Oregon on January 9 to over 73 percent by the time the Hoosiers had completed their 56-22 beatdown of the Ducks.
It's worth noting that Miami's chance, per Kalshi, jumped to as high as 32.1 percent after the Canes beat Ole Miss on January 8. But as it became clear that Miami's national championship game opponent would be Indiana, a flurry of activity dropped the Canes' chance to 27 percent, and the probability for these teams winning it all has stayed at around 74% for Indiana and 26% for Miami since this matchup was set.
Indiana's 74 percent chance equates to American odds of -285, while Miami's 26 percent chance is equivalent to +285.
At this point, there's certainly good reason to believe that Indiana will dominate another highly ranked opponent. In the CFP semis against Oregon, which did not lose to any teams besides IU this year, Indiana immediately jumped out in front with a pick-six on the Ducks' first drive en route to a 35-7 lead at halftime.
On the heels of that performance, the biggest question many fans have entering the title game not is whether Indiana will raise the trophy, but whether Monday's game will be competitive from start to finish.
Miami, however, already has one massive Playoff upset on its resume (this team was not expected to keep its quarterfinal clash with Ohio State close from start to finish), and the Canes’ pass rush, running game and overall physicality make them formidable.
Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa and defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. are both projected first-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, and they are two big reasons why the Hurricanes have dominated the line of scrimmage throughout their Playoff run.
My early, lukewarm take on this matchup is that Indiana is well-rounded enough to not only win, but cover the spread, even if the Hurricanes keep it close for 30-45 minutes.
For IU, stopping Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. -- who has gained 395 yards on 58 carries in three CFP games -- will be much easier said than done. But I expect the Hoosiers defense, which allows just 75 rushing yards per game (No. 2 in the country) and held 13 of 15 opponents this year to under 100 yards on the ground, to at least keep Fletcher and the Hurricanes' rushing game in check.
If Indiana is able to force Carson Beck to consistently have to convert on third-and-long, the Hoosiers' excellent secondary led by D'Angelo Ponds should be able to make it a long night for Beck and Co.
Beck, the veteran former Georgia star, deserves a ton of credit for proving his doubters wrong over the last month, especially against Ohio State and Ole Miss. But the Rebels are a different caliber of defensive opponent than Texas A&M, Ohio State or Indiana, and here's what Beck did through the air against the Aggies and Buckeyes:
Even if Bain and the Miami D are able to prevent Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers offense from once again putting up massive numbers, the smart play, IMO, is to back the more proven offense of the heavy favorites.
Beck is looking to help Miami become the fourth Indiana opponent all year to score at least 20 points. In its last three games, the Hoosiers held Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon to 10, 3 and 22 points respectively, including 14 garbage-time points by the Ducks.
While OSU QB Juilan Sayin's numbers (21-of-29, for 258 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception) were solid, both Bama's Ty Simpson (just 67 yards on 12-of-16 passing) and Oregon's Dante Moore (24-of-39, for 285 yards, 2 TDs and 1 int) struggled*, to say the least, against the Indiana defense.
Those of us who keep pointing out the following will have a ton of crow to eat if the Hurricanes pull off the upset, but Beck's six picks in his team's two losses this year (four against Louisville and two against SMU) are hard to ignore.
It's also notable that he threw multiple interceptions in four games for Georgia as a junior last fall, including three apiece against Alabama, Texas and Florida. While he took much better care of the football in the Dawgs’ 28-10 loss to Ole Miss, he completed just 20-of-31 passes for 186 yards with 0 TDs, 1 interception and five sacks in that game.
*Moore finished with solid stats last Friday night, but did most of his damage after the game was already out of reach.
Prediction: Indiana Wins National Championship
I'd be surprised to see the Hoosiers dominate every facet of this matchup and win by 20 or more, but I do like them to come through with another double-digit win.