Just two years ago, America's longstanding dominance in space seemed under threat. China had been surging ahead for more than a decade and planned to become the world's leading space power. It had two successful robot moon landings, which returned with lunar samples in 2020 and 2024. It completed the Tiangong ("Heavenly Palace") orbital space station in 2022. Most troubling: Beijing continues to test and develop antisatellite weapons that could cripple the GPS and other space-based systems on which the U.S. would rely in time of war.
In 2023 officials including Bill Nelson, then administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, warned that China was trying to establish a dominant foothold on the moon by 2030, with the aim of seizing resource-rich areas near the lunar south pole. Mr. Nelson said the Chinese might assert sovereignty over the moon itself. Stopping them didn't seem a Biden administration priority, especially when space-capsule safety problems stranded two American astronauts at the International Space Station for more than nine months.
In the past year, however, the energy and vision in the U.S. government has shifted, thanks to the Trump administration and NASA's new administrator, Jared Isaacman. Meanwhile, Beijing is struggling to keep its space ambitions on track.
The recent launch failures of China's Long March-3B and Ceres-2 commercial rockets and the explosion of another, Landspace's Zhuque-3, shortly after reaching orbit in December raise questions about the program's technical competence. In November, China's Shenzhou-20 spacecraft was hit by debris, delaying the return of three astronauts by more than a week. The 2023 leadership shake-up in China's Rocket Force, followed by the removal of other high-level leaders, sowed confusion and instability in the overall space program.
China still plans to launch a data center into space in the next five years, but that timeline looks unlikely. Instead, the U.S. now has the momentum, competence and leadership to dominate the space race in the private and public sectors.
The centerpiece of the Trump space program is Artemis II, which is scheduled to launch next month. It will carry four astronauts on a 10-day orbit of the moon, preparing the way for Artemis III by 2028. That mission will put human beings -- including the first woman -- on the moon for the first time since 1972. The Artemis III crew will conduct scientific research around the lunar south pole -- the area the Chinese hoped to claim.
China's heavy-lift rockets for lunar landings, like the Long March 9 and 10, won't be ready for operation until 2030. The massive March 10 reportedly can move a payload of 70 metric tons. Compare that with Elon Musk's SpaceX Starship, which can lift 150 metric tons and will be the backbone of Artemis III, with more upgrades in the works.
America's place in the current space race owes a lot to Mr. Musk and SpaceX. The company carried out a record 165 launches in 2025, compared with 92 for China. That includes more than 100 for Starlink alone, which makes SpaceX the world master in orbital missions.
Mr. Musk last week announced the merger of SpaceX with xAI, which will enlist artificial intelligence and machine learning in space exploration. He is talking about putting AI data centers into space, where solar power can make them as much as 10 times as efficient as those on Earth.
Lockheed-Martin is responsible for the Orion space capsule for Artemis II and III. Boeing and Blue Origin will continue to be major contributors to America's space programs. They are joined by rising companies like Astranis, which builds geostationary orbit satellites, and Relativity Space, which uses 3-D printers to make commercial rockets. Hadrian builds precision component factories that help space manufacturers get the parts they need 10 times as fast at 1/20th of the cost. Rocket Lab conducts cheap and rapid space launches for small satellites. These companies and others will keep space a growing commercial and national-security sector for America.
China and Russia are still America's adversaries in space, especially with their antisatellite arsenals. But the U.S. Space Force, which Congress created during President Trump's first administration, understands the threat. It is deploying ground-based systems to disrupt Chinese intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance satellites. Space Force also is launching "proliferated" constellations, or networks, of satellites that are harder for adversaries to disrupt than a single satellite.
Space Force's $40 billion budget this year includes contracts for building the Golden Dome system, which will use space-based interceptors to take out missiles targeting the U.S. and its allies.
American space dominance benefits more than the U.S. The Artemis missions take their name from the Artemis Accords, established by the first Trump administration in 2020 to create rules for international cooperation in space. Sixty countries have signed the accords. China and Russia haven't.
More than 50 years ago, America ushered in a global era of using space for communication and connectivity. Today, that U.S. dominance will produce space-based prosperity and enhance security.
Mr. Herman is author of "Freedom's Forge: How American Business Produced Victory in World War II" and "Founder's Fire: From 1776 to the Age of Trump," the latter forthcoming in April.