Donald Trump was elected to combat inflation, secure the border and counter the cultural excesses of the progressive left. Like any president, he's expected to shift priorities when unforeseen circumstances surface. But if and when that happens, the president is obliged to explain himself to voters.
The Trump administration's problem is that much of the public is confused about the war, including many who agree that Tehran had it coming. As the American offensive in Iran approaches the two-week mark, too many voters are having difficulty making heads or tails of Washington's goals and game plan. Earlier on Monday, Mr. Trump told a CBS News reporter that the war is "very complete, pretty much" and that we were "very far" ahead of schedule, indicating that he might soon end the bombing campaign.
But the Pentagon insisted in a post on social media that "We have Only Just Begun to Fight." And later Monday, Mr. Trump said that he was poised to intensify attacks because Iran was blockading the Strait of Hormuz and preventing oil from reaching the market. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," he wrote on Truth Social.
Strategic ambiguity, if that's what this is, can be a double-edged sword. The upside is that you keep your enemies on their toes, while the downside is that you risk looking unsure and incompetent at home. Given Mr. Trump's already low job-approval rating, he couldn't count on the American public to give him the benefit of the doubt. And they haven't. Generally, the war is polling poorly, with support ranging from 50% (Fox News) through 38% (Quinnipiac) to 27% (Reuters/Ipsos).
Mr. Trump's other challenge is the political calendar, and he is testing the patience of fellow Republicans who will have to face voters in November. The president is being pressured to call off the strikes, but let's hope the White House understands the difference between ending a war and winning it. It makes little sense to stop short of replacing the regime root and branch, or at least destroying its ability to spread global terror.
Still, the ability of those Republicans in Congress with an eye on the midterm elections to bring pressure to bear on the president shouldn't be underestimated. It was GOP lawmakers who forced the president last week finally to sack Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. And it's an indication that Mr. Trump's hold on Republican lawmakers could weaken significantly as the midterms approach and his priorities diverge from theirs.
The griping over Ms. Noem's expensive marketing campaign was pretextual. Ms. Noem's real sin was her handling of immigration enforcement, which managed to turn one of the president's strengths into a festering liability. Successfully securing the border was a political winner, a stark example of Mr. Trump's delivering on a promise that had been central to his re-election campaign. But the clumsy and overly aggressive mass-deportation efforts that have followed -- culminating in the death of two Americans -- have been deeply unpopular.
Simply replacing Ms. Noem is unlikely to be sufficient. The administration's real problem is that the immigration issue is producing diminishing political returns. The border mayhem that crested under President Biden has subsided, and surveys show that voters are much more concerned about the cost of living.
Some draw a direct line between the immigration raids and declining Hispanic support for Republicans. In last year's gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats recaptured the Latino vote in enclaves that Mr. Trump carried in 2024. Last week, James Talarico won a Democratic primary race in Texas for the U.S. Senate with a strong performance in counties that boast the highest share of Hispanics.
It's likely that the Trump administration's mass-deportation efforts have affected the voting patterns of Latinos and other minority groups, but it's also true that Mr. Trump's restrictionism has been the constant in both terms. If the president's hard-line immigration stance is scaring away minority voters, why was he able to win them over in the first place?
Mr. Trump's appeal to minorities has always been more about his stewardship of the economy and less about his border policies. As inflation has continued to take its toll on wages, and affordability concerns have heightened, minority support for Republicans has become more tentative. According to last month's jobs report, the white unemployment rate has remained stable over the past year while it has increased for blacks, Asians and Hispanics.
Yes, the president needs a new homeland security secretary. He also needs a new strategy.