WASHINGTON -- Outdated intelligence likely led the United States to carry out a deadly missile strike on an elementary school in Iran that killed more than 165 people, including many children, in the opening hours of the conflict, according to a U.S. official and a second person briefed on the findings of a preliminary U.S. military investigation into the incident.
The school bombing and its casualties involving children became a focal point of the war and, if ultimately confirmed to be attributable to the United States, it would also be among the highest civilian casualty events caused by U.S. military operations over the past two decades.
President Donald Trump first blamed Iran for the attack, then said he was unsure who was responsible, then said he would accept the results of the Pentagon's investigation. The issue became even more urgent Wednesday after The New York Times first reported that a preliminary investigation found the United States was responsible.
U.S. Central Command relied on target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, according to the person familiar with the preliminary findings.
The agency did not respond to a request for comment.
The preliminary findings prompted immediate calls to the Pentagon for more information. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said "the investigation is still ongoing."
The U.S. official and the person familiar with the matter spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
Dozens of Democratic senators demanded answers from the Trump administration on Wednesday as growing evidence suggested the United States was likely responsible for the strike.
The letter from more than 45 senators pressed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about whether the United States was guilty of the strike and what previous analysis of the building had been done. The senators also raised concerns that the Pentagon was weakening a congressionally mandated office created specifically to reduce civilian casualties.
"Under this Administration, budget and personnel reductions within the Department have deprived military commands of critical resources to prevent and respond to civilian casualties," the senators wrote.
These include cuts to U.S. Central Command, whose forces are leading the military campaign against Iran, and the Civil Defense Center of Excellence, which was signed into law in 2022 as part of the Pentagon's ambition to reduce death tolls from strikes.
The revelation could threaten to erode public support for the U.S. effort against Iran at a time when Trump, who as a candidate railed against U.S. involvement in "stupid" wars abroad, faces lingering questions about the purpose and conflict and what might end it.
A former Pentagon official said the Feb. 28 strike that hit Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School, located near a nearby Iranian Revolutionary Guard base, was the natural result of the Trump administration's changes to reduce personnel to mitigate harm to civilians and Hegseth's emphasis on lethality rather than legality.
Evidence mounts showing US responsibility for strike
Several elements suggest that the school strike could have been avoided.
It happened Saturday morning, at the start of the Iranian school week, when the building was full of young children. Satellite analysis by the AP shows that the school, along with other targets struck the same day, had features visible from the air that could have identified them as civilian sites before they were struck.
The AP reported last week that satellite images, expert analysis, a U.S. official and public information released by the U.S. military all suggested it was likely a U.S. strike. That evidence grew stronger Monday, with the release of new footage showing what experts identified as a U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile striking the military compound as smoke already rose from the area where the school was located.
Publicly available satellite images show that the school building was part of the military complex until around 2017, when a new wall was added to separate the two. A watchtower on the property was also removed. Around the same time, images show that the walls surrounding the building were painted with brightly colored murals, mostly blue and pink, so bright they are visible from space.
The school has been clearly marked as such on online maps and has an easily accessible website filled with information about students, teachers and administrators.
International law governing war prohibits strikes against structures, vehicles and people who are not military objectives or combatants. Civilian homes, schools, medical facilities and cultural sites are generally off-limits to military strikes. A school's proximity to a valid military target does not change its status as a civilian site, said Elise Baker, senior counsel at the Atlantic Council, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington.
If the United States is found responsible, Sen. Tim Kaine said Wednesday during a briefing with reporters, "It's either we changed our traditional targeting rules or we made a mistake."
"If we changed our traditional targeting rules and no longer provided the same level of protection to civilians, that would be tragic," Kaine said.
Some Republicans are also sounding the alarm.
Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told reporters that an investigation must "get to the bottom of it" and then "admit if you know whose fault it is."
If the United States was behind this, Cramer said, the military must "do everything in its power to eliminate these errors in the future."
He added: "But you can't undo it either."
The safeguards intended to limit civilian deaths have been gutted
Congress directed the Pentagon to create the Civil Defense Center of Excellence in late 2022 as part of the sweeping annual defense authorization bill, which passed both chambers with broad bipartisan support. The bill says the center must "institutionalize and advance knowledge, practices, and tools to prevent, mitigate, and respond to harm to civilians."
This measure builds on an initiative that had already been launched by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin earlier that year. The 36-step action plan was "ambitious and necessary," Austin said at the time.
As of April 2023, that office had a full-time director hired by the military and an initial staff of 30 civilians, according to a 2024 Pentagon report that said staffing levels were expected to increase.
Wes Bryant began working there in 2024 as head of the civil damage assessments branch. One of the things the office was discussing was updating the "no-strike list," he said,a series of civilian targets in other countries that the Pentagon maintains. When he worked at the Pentagon,it was common knowledge that the list was outdated,she said. But under Hegseth,the size of the office was reduced andthe work of updating no-strike lists stopped,she said.
"They don't have a budget. They just sit there trying to maintain some semblance of a mission," he said.
Capt. Tim Hawkins,a spokesman for U.S. Central Command,denied reports thatthe military command had only one person assigned to themission,but would not provide further details,citingthe ongoing investigation.