The battle for the House majority in next year's midterms is growing increasingly competitive as redistricting reshapes the country's political landscape.
Democrats, buoyed by a string of off-year special election victories and historic trends, are optimistic about flipping the lower chamber. They point to generic ballot polling that shows them leading the GOP, as well as President Trump's sinking approval numbers, as reasons for their optimism.
But the recent GOP push to redraw congressional lines in multiple red states threatens to effectively cancel out these advantages, especially as Democrats face fewer options to counter their opponents with their own redistricting.
As a result, the race for the House is currently shaping up as a coin flip, some experts say.
"At this stage in the game, the House looks like it's going to be more competitive than we had thought and redistricting is a main driver of that," said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ.
"A lot of that stuff looks like it is going in the Republicans' favor," he added.
On Thursday, the National Republican Congressional Committee added three Texas districts -- the 9th, 32nd and 35th -- to their target list following Lone Star State Republicans approving a new congressional map over the summer. In a statement announcing the addition, the committee's Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) noted that House Republicans were "on offense."
Republicans are also seeking to get a boost in Missouri, where the state legislature passed a GOP-friendly map last week. That map would effectively nix Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's (D-Mo.) district. Republicans will try to gain two seats in Ohio's redistricting process, which is legally required to take place this year. And other red states like Florida, Indiana and Kansas are looking into redrawing their own maps.
But Republicans also say they already believed they were in decent standing heading into 2026 even before redistricting, pointing to 13 Democrats in districts Trump won last year compared to three Republicans in districts won by former Vice President Harris.
"When the margins are that small any of these efforts in terms of redistricting are very helpful," said a national Republican operative. "If everything goes correctly, we could see upwards of 10-plus seats favor Republicans across the map. That is huge in a game of inches."
Democrats in blue states are seeking to combat GOP redistricting efforts by redrawing their own maps to create Democratic gains that would cancel out Republican gains. Voters in California must approve Proposition 50, which would temporarily undue the state's Independent Redistricting Commission so Democrats in the state legislature can draw a new map. Polls show a majority of voters in the state approve of the plan.
Democrats also stand to pick up a new seat in Utah if Republican lawmakers are forced to redraw their House map. And in Missouri, Democrats are looking to hold a referendum on the new Republican map. A Change Research poll released earlier this month found that 48 percent of Missouri voters said they opposed the redistricting effort while 37 percent said they supported it. Another 19 percent said they were undecided.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee predicted in a statement to The Hill that the Republican redistricting efforts "will backfire."
"Republicans have no track record of accomplishment, and instead of campaigning on the merits, they have concluded that the only way to salvage their weak majority is to rig the midterm elections," said Courtney Rice, the committee's communications director Courtney Rice.
Democrats have other advantages. For one, they note that Trump's approval rating is on a downward trajectory. Earlier this week, an Economist/YouGov poll showed Trump's approval rating at 39 percent, down from 41 percent recorded over the last three weeks. According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Trump's approval rating is at 46.5 percent.
Multiple polls from September and October of 2017 showed the president's approval rating anywhere from 39 percent to 43 percent. Just over a year later in November, Democrats took back the House in what was called a blue wave election.
Democrats also have history on their side. Typically, the party in power is at a disadvantage in a midterm election, and Democrats have consistently over performed in off-year- and midterm elections anyway. In 2022, the party defied expectations by expanding their majority in the Senate, minimizing losses in the House and winning many down-ballot races.
But Republicans argue that this cycle is different.
"I think a lot of people are quick to assume this is a repeat of the 2018 cycle," the national GOP operative said, noting that at this point in 2017 Democrats were leading Republicans on the generic ballot by around eight points.
Decision Desk HQ's latest generic ballot polling average has Democrats leading by 3.5 points.
However, experts warn that the generic ballot over a year out from the midterms should be taken with a grain of salt, given the chance that the environment could change. Democrats were arguably facing headwinds at the beginning of 2022 given it was then-President Biden's first term. But the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion access at the federal level, led to a ground swell of enthusiasm for Democrats. While Republicans narrowly took control of the House, Democrats expanded their majority in the Senate.
"We know it's going to bounce around a lot but if this were September 2026, the Democrats should be worried about the generic ballot," Tranter said.
Another potentially promising sign for Republicans going into 2026 is the swing from key demographics that was seen in 2024.
While Trump did not win 18 to 29-year-olds outright last year, he notably improved his standing among that voting bloc. According to data from the Pew Research Center, Harris won the bloc by 19 points. Former President Biden won the group in 2020 by 26 points; while Hillary Clinton won the group by 30 points in 2016. A recent report from Decision Desk HQ found that Gen Z is currently by registration the most-pro Republican generation alive.
Voter turnout in midterm elections tends to be lower than that of a presidential year. Turnout among young voters tends to be lower across the board as well. However, Republicans say the impact of the recent assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk could have a strong effect on the galvanization of young voters next year.
Kirk and his organization Turning Point USA was instrumental in turning out young voters for Trump in 2024.
"We know this: Gen Z shifted right over the last election, and Charlie Kirk's organization, that was their mission and so we're seeing some of the fruits of that labor," Tranter said.
As of Thursday night, the group said it had received over 62,000 requests to start chapters on high school and college campuses.
"This is something that is going to reverberate through American politics for the next 50 years. It is just how conservative this new generation of kids coming up is," said Gregg Keller, a Republican consultant.