It's been a pretty great week for Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX:PDN) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to AU$7.28 in the week since its latest annual results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$178m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.13 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Paladin Energy's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$312.0m in 2026. This would be a substantial 76% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Paladin Energy forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.13 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$314.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.076 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of AU$8.38, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Paladin Energy analyst has a price target of AU$12.48 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$5.15. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 76% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 89% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.0% per year. So although Paladin Energy is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.