Ranking the top 2028 Democratic contenders

Ranking the top 2028 Democratic contenders
Source: The Hill

Democrats spent the early part of last year struggling to redefine themselves after devastating losses in the 2024 election.

Now, with 2025 closed out, the party has regained some of its lost momentum, aided by a string of recent special election victories and President Trump's rocky approval ratings.

And as the party prepares for the midterms, many leading Democrats are asserting themselves on the national stage, looking beyond this year to the 2028 presidential race.

Some, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), have succeeded in growing their national profile as they openly weigh a White House bid. Others, such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), have seen their stock fall -- at least for now.

With that in mind, here is The Hill's first ranking of the year for the top 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls:

Gavin Newsom

Newsom has emerged as the frontrunner in the nascent 2028 primary field, at least according to many strategists.

Surveys generally put him and former Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck. An average of 15 recent polls tracked by "RacetotheWH," from political forecaster Logan Phillips, has him right behind her by a single point.

But the fact that he's almost tied with last year's Democratic presidential nominee underscores how much his profile has risen over the past year.

It's a notable development for the California governor, who generated some heat from members of his own party when he started off the year by seeking to build bridges with MAGA figures with a new podcast.

But he quickly changed tack by taking a more aggressive posture against President Trump -- even mocking the commander-in-chief by impersonating his style of social media posts.

He also clinched a major political victory in November when Californians voted to approve his plan to redraw the state's congressional lines to favor Democrats next year.

Since then, he has fielded a string of calls "begging him" to run in 2028, The Hill reported earlier this month. He has also garnered more than 100,000 contributors who hadn't previously given to his campaigns.

Most recently, a CNN poll looking toward 2028 found him leading the Democratic field. However, many voters remain open to someone else, showing that the race to the Democratic nomination is still anyone's game.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

The progressive, who burst onto the national scene as part of 2018's blue wave, has seen her star continue to rise as the party searches for new leaders.

Ocasio-Cortez remains a popular figure among young people in particular, drawing huge crowds this year as part of her "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The Yale Youth Poll last fall found Ocasio-Cortez with a double-digit lead over Harris, Newsom and others. And a poll last month put her up 2 points over Vice President Vance, the GOP heir apparent, in a hypothetical 2028 matchup.

The congresswoman shared the poll on the social media platform X, fueling new questions about her future plans.

Ocasio-Cortez has otherwise dodged questions about a White House bid, or whether she plans to instead challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

But her growing national profile and big fundraising numbers have established her as one of the party's leading figures and clear 2028 frontrunner.

Kamala Harris

The party's 2024 standard-bearer fueled chatter about another try for the White House as she toured the country to promote her new memoir last year.

Despite her defeat in the last election, Harris has topped early 2028 polling, though some experts guess that's more due to name ID than an actual appetite for a third Harris campaign.

In December, she expanded her book tour to include the critical early primary state of South Carolina and appeared before the Democratic National Committee (DNC) at its meetings in California, where she described her party as "very much stuck in the past."

The DNC notably decided afterward not to release an analysis of 2024 losses.

The continued 2028 speculation comes after Harris, a former California attorney general and senator, gave a serious look last year at the race to replace term-limited Newsom as governor of the Golden State.

She decided against the governor's race in July, but she has made it clear she isn't finished with public service, saying this fall that she could "possibly" still be president one day.

Josh Shapiro

Shapiro has frequently been mentioned in the same breath as Newsom as one of the top potential contenders for the White House in 2028.

His supporters point to his success in a swing state that has proven critical to Democrats' chances of winning the White House. The party lost the Keystone State in 2024 by less than 2 points.

Shapiro won his 2022 campaign for governor by double digits and has a 60 percent job approval among Pennsylvania voters, according to an October Qunnipiac poll, compared to a 43 percent approval for Trump.

That poll also found Shapiro leading Vance in a hypothetical 2028 race by 10 points.

The governor has been coy, though, about any presidential plans. First, he's up for reelection as governor in the midterms, which could make for a critical test of his popularity and political power heading into the next cycle.

Andy Beshear

Buzz is building about Beshear, a moderate Democrat who has been able to win statewide in deep-red Kentucky.

Beshear flipped the Kentucky governorship back in 2019, then beat back a Trump-backed challenger to win reelection and remains one of the country's most popular governors. He became a top attack dog for Harris and was rumored to be in the veepstakes, given his repeat success in a state that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the last three elections.

Like Newsom, he has also taken steps to build his national profile by starting his own podcast.

This year, he will be leading the Democratic Governors Association as the party faces 36 gubernatorial races in the midterms, which means he'll be traveling the country and meeting with key party operatives that could help boost his national profile.

JB Pritzker

Pritzker, the billionaire leader of Illinois, is another governor who has been taking it to Trump and stoking 2028 chatter in the process.

Like Newsom and Shapiro, Pritzker was also on Harris's VP shortlist and has yet to rule out more national ambitions.

His state took in Democratic legislators who fled Texas over redistricting last summer, and he pushed back against Trump's attempts to federalize the state National Guard. After Trump called for the governor to be jailed this past fall, Pritzker made headlines with his response: "Come and get me."

He has emphasized a focus on 2026 when he's up for reelection for a third gubernatorial term. But some observers have even noted Pritzker’s recent weight loss as a sign that he could be readying for a White House run.

Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020 before notching a spot in then-President Biden's Cabinet, decided this year against running for Senate in Michigan after much speculation, leaving the door open for a possible presidential run.

Unlike some of his fellow Democrats, Buttigieg doesn't have a role that keeps him in the national conversation with Trump.

But the former Transportation secretary has carved out a spot for himself as a strong party communicator and has often come in third in early 2028 polling.

In her campaign memoir, Harris wrote that Buttigieg would have been an "ideal" running mate in 2024, but suggested that a ticket with a Black woman and an openly gay man wouldn't have been able to win. Buttigieg has said that Americans should be given "more credit" at the ballot box.

Gretchen Whitmer

Whitmer has long been floated as a likely 2028 contender, though she has receded from the spotlight over the past year.

After laughing off a viral photo last year that caught her hiding from cameras in the Oval Office by holding a blue folder over her face, she has stressed that her focus is on her last few years as term-limited governor.

"I don't know if I need to be the main character in the next chapter, but I want to have a hand in writing it, and I think I've got an important vantage point as the governor of an important swing state,"

Whitmer told the Michigan Advance in October.

Some observers have also questioned whether Democrats have the appetite to nominate another woman for the White House after 2024, a factor that could prove a hurdle to Harris and Whitmer alike.

Cory Booker

Booker, whose 2020 presidential campaign struggled with lower name ID, made headlines last year when he set an all-time record for the longest floor speech in Senate history as he protested against Trump and GOP spending cuts.

During a stop in the key early state of New Hampshire in November, Booker said 2028 is on the table.

Though he has yet to make a big splash in early 2028 polling, recent results have shown him in the mix: for example, a November YouGov poll put him behind Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez as Democrats' top pick, but ahead of Shapiro, Pritzker and Whitmer.

And though he didn't make the top five of Democrats' 2028 picks in last fall's Yale Youth Poll, Booker came in among the top five candidates seen as "most electable."

Booker is new on The Hill's ranking list since September's update, in a sign of how swiftly the field is shifting as 2028 approaches.