Reeling from Trump's tariffs, India and China seek a business reboot

Reeling from Trump's tariffs, India and China seek a business reboot
Source: Yahoo! Finance

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in China this weekend with the sting of Donald Trump's US tariffs still top of mind.

Since Wednesday, tariffs on Indian goods bound for the US, like diamonds and shrimp, now stand at 50% - which the US president says is punishment for Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil.

Experts say the levies threaten to leave lasting bruises on India's vibrant export sector and its ambitious growth targets.

China's Xi Jinping too is trying to revive a sluggish Chinese economy at a time when sky-high US tariffs threaten to derail his plans.

Against this backdrop, the leaders of the world's two most populous countries may both be looking for a reset in their relationship, which has previously been marked by mistrust, a large part of it driven by border disputes.

"Put simply, what happens in this relationship matters to the rest of the world," Chietigj Bajpaee and Yu Jie of Chatham House wrote in a recent editorial.
"India was never going to be the bulwark against China that the West (and the United States in particular) thought it was... Modi's China visit marks a potential turning point."

India and China are economic powerhouses - the world's fifth and second largest respectively.

But with India's growth expected to remain above 6%, a $4 trillion economy, and $5 trillion stock market, it is on the way to moving up to third place by 2028, according to the IMF.

"While the world has traditionally focused on the single most important bilateral relationship in the world, US and China, it is time we shift more focus on how the second and third largest economies, China and India, can work together," says Qian Liu, founder and chief executive of Wusawa Advisory, based in Beijing.

But the relationship is deeply challenging.

The two sides have an unresolved and long-standing territorial dispute - that signifies a much broader and deeper rivalry.

Violence erupted across Ladakh's Galwan Valley in June 2020 - the worst period of hostility between the two countries in more than four decades.

The fallout was largely economic - a return of direct flights was taken off the table, visas and Chinese investments were put on hold leading to slower infrastructure projects, and India banned more than 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok.

"Dialogue will be needed to help better manage the expectations of other powers who look to India-China as a key factor of Asia's wider stability," Antoine Levesques, senior fellow for South and Central Asian defence, strategy and diplomacy at IISS, says.