Republican officials are sounding the alarm and urging significant changes ahead of November's midterm elections, worried that the war in Iran and Democratic enthusiasm could lead to a blowout. In some places, they fear it might already be too late.
Several top Republicans in Wisconsin have called on the state GOP chairman to resign after a state supreme-court election last week resulted in a liberal candidate beating a conservative one by 20 percentage points.
In Arizona, another of the nation's most politically competitive states, some Republicans are openly questioning the effectiveness of one of the party's top outside groups after it failed in its recent effort to win majority control of a Phoenix-area utility board.
Even in deeply red Texas, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick warned a conservative conference last week that the climate echoes that of 2018, when Democrat Beto O'Rourke nearly defeated GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. He said mudslinging in the GOP Senate primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could hurt down-ballot Republicans -- and cost control of the statehouse -- if the party remained divided.
The GOP expected a tough year based on history alone: Since World War II, the party holding the White House has gained House seats in just two midterms -- 1998 and 2002. The war with Iran and surging gas prices, which analysts say could remain elevated for months even if conflict ends soon, have added more headwind.
"It looks dour," said Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who represents a Phoenix-area district that is one of the nation's most competitive. He said he had been urging fellow Republicans in tough districts to focus on local matters and offer more empathy for people dealing with economic hardship, which he said he is trying to do in a long-shot bid for governor.
Todd Blodgett, a Republican activist in Iowa, said he sees rising costs hurting farmers and darkening the mood of his state's voters. "What optimism I did feel pretty much evaporated with this war," he said. "President Trump is doing what needs to be done, but the price of fertilizer has doubled in Iowa and gas is up 35% to 40% a gallon."
Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats are favored to win the House and compete for control of the Senate. Just months ago, top Republicans were confident they wouldn't lose the Senate, which would jeopardize Trump's ability to win confirmations to his cabinet or the Supreme Court.
The Cook Political Report this week moved forecasts for three Senate races in states Trump won in 2024 toward Democrats: Ohio moved to tossup, and Georgia and North Carolina are leaning blue. It also recently shifted several House races in favor of Democrats and said the governor's race in Iowa -- a state Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024 -- is a toss up.
Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the president, and on that score Republicans are also anxious because they never quite know what to expect from their leader. Trump's job approval at 36% is a low point for his second term in Gallup's tracking poll. And his recent attack on Pope Leo XIV and decision to post an AI-generated image depicting himself as a Christ-like figure has sparked outrage among many, including on the religious right.
Republicans hoped to spend much of this week highlighting tax cuts Trump signed into law last year, but the war and the president's criticism of the pope kept the party off message.
Trump hasn't delivered on his affordability promises, said Oren Cass, chief economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank. "He hasn't been governing in a way that would lead your typical American to believe he is, in fact, focused on delivering solutions to their challenges," he said.
Vice President JD Vance told Republicans in Georgia this week that it's "preposterous" their party will suffer steep midterm-election losses.
Despite positive trend lines for Democrats, it won't be an easy ride to victory. Generational and policy divisions are straining the party, which could result in potentially less competitive general-election candidates emerging from coming primaries.
Some individual Democratic candidates have seen big fundraising success, but the Democratic National Committee and the party's allied House and Senate committees have collectively trailed their GOP counterparts. MAGA Inc., the primary super political-action committee tied to Trump, also has more than $300 million to potentially spend on the midterms.
In Wisconsin, the state GOP's executive committee is expected to meet Saturday to discuss the leadership of Chairman Brian Schimming after the state supreme court loss, said Chris Slinker, a committee member.
"If you own a football team and your quarterback keeps throwing interceptions, would you keep that quarterback?" he asked.
A person familiar with Wisconsin's GOP leadership said a White House official personally made calls in the summer of 2025 to bolster Schimming's standing, after Democrats won a state supreme court race that set a spending record for a U.S. judicial election.
"We need to focus on joining together and building our movement to advance victories in November," Schimming said in a statement after declining an interview request.
In Iowa, where there are two tossup House races, the deepest GOP anxiety centers around Cook's shift of the governor's race to tossup. Jeff Kaufmann, Republican Party of Iowa chairman, called the change "lazy" and "naive" on social media.
In Arizona, an affiliate of Turning Point USA, the group founded by the late Charlie Kirk, mobilized a significant get-out-the-vote effort for Salt River Project election earlier this month. While the GOP-aligned candidates won the top two spots on the Phoenix-area utility's board, clean-energy advocates flipped other seats, taking control of the board.
Turning Point, based in Phoenix, is expected to organize in other battlegrounds for the midterms. Tyler Bowyer, a top executive at the organization, called the outcome a success, given the group helped turn out more Republicans than past SRP elections.
Arizona is also home to one of the nation's most closely watched governor's races and two of the best pickup opportunities for House Democrats.
"I think everybody would be in agreement that the Republican Party is the underdog this November," said Thomas Galvin, a Republican Maricopa County supervisor, who has clashed with Turning Point but backed the same candidates in the utility-board race.
The day after the Arizona election, Patrick, the Texas lieutenant governor, delivered his alert at the influential Texas Public Policy Foundation's annual summit in Austin. Citing a state Senate special election in January in which a staunchly Trump-supporting North Texas district swung 31 points leftward to elect a Democrat, he told the crowd not to take the GOP's 23-year control of Texas for granted.
Patrick sent shock waves through political circles when he warned "we're going to have a tough time holding the Texas House," if Republicans can't come together after the nasty U.S. Senate primary.
In an interview, Patrick said he fears complacency among Republicans and has been struck by the number who have told him they would never vote for either Paxton or Cornyn. It would only take 10% to 15% of GOP voters staying home for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico to win, he said.
"This is the nastiest race we've had in a primary between Republicans in 20 to 25 years and maybe ever," Patrick said. "I want to wake people up."
Dade Phelan, a Republican Texas state representative, said he had recently spent spare time playing with political-calculation tools. Some estimates show at least eight state Texas House seats flipping in November and possibly up to the 14 needed to swing the majority to Democrats.
Talarico's eye-popping $27 million first-quarter fundraising haul lit up his phone this week, Phelan said. He thinks swing voters could gravitate to Talarico’s relatively calm demeanor during a chaotic national environment.
"There's definitely a nervous buzz," he said.