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The road to a U.S. Senate majority in 2027 and 2028 runs through North Carolina, where the race to replace Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), which pits former Governor Roy Cooper (D) against former RNC chairman Michael Whatley (R), is likely to be the nation's most expensive 2026 midterm contest. Roy Cooper underscored a theme of his campaign in a September 21 post on X, blaming dysfunction in Washington for a host of ills, among them "rising energy prices."
Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election, appears confident about his ability to convince voters that Republicans on Capitol Hill are responsible for rising gas prices and utility bills. The Cooper campaign's effort to equate GOP policies with increasing energy costs, however, will be confounded by aspects of Cooper's own record as governor, namely his expressed interest in regional cap-and-trade programs, both existing and proposed.
In 2021, for example, then Governor Cooper registered his official support for a regional cap-and-trade program called the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI). TCI proponents lobbied legislators and other state officials for years, but the plan ultimately fell apart when it became clear that no more than three states were going to join the regional program. The way in which TCI would drive up gas prices was a key reason why TCI was rejected in 10 of the 13 northeastern and mid-Atlantic states targeted for adoption, mostly blue states where Democrats run state government. TCI proponents themselves conceded that the program would necessarily raise gas prices, with projections estimating that TCI would raise the price of gas more than 30 cents per gallon in member states.
Despite the unpopularity of TCI, even in the blue states targeted for membership, Governor Cooper signed onto a letter committing to collaboration with TCI member states in order "to shape the program to reflect the evolving needs of the region and welcome other jurisdictions to join." Meanwhile, Maine Governor Janet Mills (D), who is now running for U.S. Senate like Cooper, faced pressure to join TCI that Cooper never had to deal with. Despite that, Mills declined to sign her Democrat-run state onto that same letter of commitment for TCI collaboration that Cooper signed on behalf of North Carolina.
Some North Carolinians saw Governor Cooper’s quiet commitment to collaboration with TCI member states, which wasn’t reported in any North Carolina media outlets, as the first step toward eventually imposing cap-and-trade in North Carolina. TCI wasn’t the only cap-and-trade program in which the Cooper administration expressed interest.
A spokesman for Cooper confirmed in 2021 that membership in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an existing regional cap-and-trade program that limits and imposes a cost on carbon emissions from electric utilities in 11 northeastern states, was under consideration. Whereas TCI would’ve capped transportation-related emissions, RGGI focuses on the emissions produced by electric utilities.
North Carolina legislators were so concerned that Roy Cooper might seek to impose cap-and-trade by executive order, just as Governor Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) is still trying to do in Pennsylvania in the face of bipartisan opposition, that the GOP-led General Assembly enacted a budget in late 2021 with a provision preventing Cooper or any future governor from imposing cap-and-trade without legislative approval.
Roy Cooper, who was attorney general when the Democrat-controlled U.S. House passed legislation to create a national cap-and-trade program in 2009, has not commented on whether he supports a federal cap-and-trade program or a federal carbon tax. That 2009 cap-and-trade bill, which went on to die in the Democrat-led Senate, was criticized over the way in which it would’ve put upward pressure on utility bills and gas prices. Former Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) demonstrated the bipartisan opposition to that national cap-and-trade proposal when he shot a copy of the bill with a rifle in a 2010 campaign ad.
This past summer provided a more recent, North Carolina-specific example of bipartisan opposition to emissions caps that are projected to drive up energy costs. At the end of July, members of the North Carolina House and Senate enacted Senate Bill 266, legislation repealing the 70% carbon emissions reduction mandate for electric utilities that would’ve taken effect in 2030. Despite Governor Josh Stein’s (D-N.C.) opposition to SB 266, three Democrats in the North Carolina House joined with Republicans to override Stein’s veto when only one defection was needed. That veto override vote actually understates the bipartisan support for SB 266, which 11 Democrats voted for on initial passage, prior to Stein’s veto.
North Carolina Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R‑Rockingham) and other SB 266 supporters point to official government projected savings for ratepayers of $13 billion over the next two and a half decades. "It is written in a way to explicitly save ratepayers dollars," said Rep. Dean Arp (R‑Union), House sponsor of SB 266, about the need to repeal the 2030 emissions reduction mandate.
In his veto statement, Governor Stein contended that repeal of the 2030 carbon emissions reduction mandate will actually raise costs, with Stein alleging that the move "shifted billions in risk onto working families." Organizations opposing SB 266, such as the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club, also point research projecting that repeal of carbon emission reduction mandates would drive up utility bills.
"By overriding this veto, the General Assembly is standing up for energy affordability and sound economic policy," said Donald Bryson, president and CEO of the John Locke Foundation, a North Carolina-based think tank, about the enactment of SB 266. "North Carolinians deserve an energy strategy that prioritizes cost, reliability, and transparency -- not one driven by expensive, arbitrary mandates."
In addition to providing an opportunity to explain his past interest in cap-and-trade, along with his support for other regulations that raise costs for consumers, Roy Cooper's Senate bid is likely to have him facing questions never posed by the North Carolina press corps. For example, Cooper has spoken out many times in the past against the personal and corporate income tax cuts that the GOP-run North Carolina General Assembly enacted over the past 12 years; but Cooper has never said how high he'd like to ratchet back up the rate.
Cooper has complained about the personal income tax rate cuts enacted by GOP legislators, but does Cooper want North Carolina's top marginal rate to return to 7.75%, where it was before Republicans in the North Carolina General Assembly began flattening and cutting the rate in 2013? He hasn't said.
Cooper opposes the ongoing phaseout of North Carolina's corporate income tax, but has not said how high he thinks the rate should be. Would Cooper like to see the corporate tax rate return to 6.9%, where it was before legislators began reforming the tax code? Cooper hasn't said. Cooper has also criticized the federal corporate rate cut enacted by President Trump and congressional Republicans, yet he has not specified how high he thinks the federal corporate rate should be.
Roy Cooper is undefeated in elections, but his lengthy record will likely face more scrutiny in the coming year than it has in the previous decade. That is a key reason why many Republicans are optimistic that Cooper's 2026 U.S. Senate bid will be the political equivalent of the 2007 New England Patriots' 18-1 season.