Ryder System reports fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday before the market opens, with analysts watching whether freight market stabilization can offset emerging headwinds in the company's transactional businesses.
The Miami-based truck leasing and logistics provider is expected to report earnings of $3.57 per share on revenue of $3.21 billion, representing flat earnings but a modest sequential revenue increase from the $3.17 billion posted in the third quarter. Analysts maintain a buy rating on the stock with a mean price target of $215.44, essentially in line with the current price of $215.73.
EPS estimates have remained largely flat over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have edged up 0.76% over the same period, suggesting modest optimism about demand trends heading into year-end.
The company faces a changed sentiment landscape after its impressive run. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to hold in early January, noting that Ryder outperformed the S&P 500 for five straight years but now faces "fewer company-specific tailwinds remaining" after a multi-year pricing uplift opportunity.
What Investors Are Watching
The health of Ryder's transactional businesses will take center stage. Wolfe Research analyst Scott Group flagged "muted used truck pricing and commercial rental utilization" as continued headwinds, a concern that conflicts with recent industry data showing used commercial vehicle pricing rising 2.4% quarter-over-quarter and 3.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
Freight market dynamics remain pivotal. Truckload capacity is expected to tighten selectively in 2026 as lane imbalances from the soft 2025 market ease, with early signs of rate normalization and firmer rates heading into this year. Whether that translates into stronger rental demand and fleet utilization will be crucial.
Ryder's Southeast expansion strategy also warrants attention. The company completed its acquisition of Truck Service Depot in early January, expanding its mobile maintenance business across Georgia, part of a broader push into high-growth freight corridors.
Recent Performance and Context
In the third quarter, Ryder posted earnings of $3.57 per share, beating the $3.54 consensus estimate, though revenue of $3.17 billion came in slightly below the $3.18 billion forecast. The company has delivered diluted EPS growth of 10.62% and projected EPS growth of 21.63%, trading at a forward P/E ratio of 16.18.
Wednesday's results will test whether Ryder can sustain its momentum amid a changing competitive landscape and signal whether the freight market recovery that has eluded the industry for years is finally taking hold.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor.