U.S. equity index futures climb on renewed optimism of an agreement after Washington reaffirmed the ceasefire and paused 'Project Freedom' helping ease immediate concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and causing oil prices to fall back (see Commodities below); the S&P 500 (+0.8% to 7,259), Nasdaq 100 (+1.3% to 28,015), and Dow 30 (+0.7% to 49,298) all advanced on strong earnings and retreating energy prices, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.8% to 2,845) outperformed; Treasury yields fell back from recent highs with the 30-year just beneath 5%, and market pricing (CME's FedWatch) sees a hold this year out of the Fed though minority rate hike likelihoods remain significant.
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-1%) closed lower in what was a stellar session for most within the semiconductor sphere, with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (+13%, +4.8% AH) rallying on a Bloomberg report that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (+2.7%) has held early-stage talks over using its foundry services, memory maker Micron’s (NASDAQ:MU) (+11.1%, +5.5% AH) market cap breaching $700bn, and AMD (+4%; +16% AH) surging in extended trading following its earnings beat (see below).
Samsung Electronics shares surge, market cap crosses $1tn.
Shares of Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) (-7%) fell despite a quarterly earnings and revenue beat prior, suggesting elevated expectations and profit-taking after recent strength.
Shares of GameStop (+1.6%) ended higher, recovering only partially from Monday’s lows when it dropped 10% following its bid for eBay (-2.8%), with the latter falling back as the acquisition looks less likely; Michael Burry sells his entire position in GameStop.
Chipotle (+1%) shares end higher, enjoying an upgrade out of Argus to buy with better gains for Ulta Beauty (+2.8%) raised to buy out of BoA, while Roblox (-7.4%) took a harsh hit, suffering a downgrade out of Piper Sandler to neutral and cut its price target in half.
Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-2.2%), AMC (+9.7%), Nokia (+2.1%), Avis (-4.9%).
Most crypto stocks ended higher: Coinbase (-2.6%) weakened after announcing a 14% workforce reduction tied partly to AI-driven efficiency efforts; MicroStrategy (+1.7% but -4.3% as it reconsiders their "never sell" Bitcoin strategy); Mara Holdings (+2.8%); Gemini Space Station (+2.1%); Bullish (+11.4%) advanced after announcing a $4.2 billion acquisition of transfer agent Equiniti.
- AMD: easily beats on earnings and revenue (up 38% y/y with data center sales surging 57%), and so too revenue guidance; shares soar 16.5% in extended trading.
- PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL): beats on earnings and revenue but disappoints on guidance, and WSJ report says it'll cut 20% of its staff; shares plummet 7.8%.
- Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI): misses on revenue but easily beats on earnings and guidance above forecast; shares surge 18% in extended trading.
Latest geopolitical updates that took oil prices, yields, and the dollar lower help gold flourish and climb to reach $4,650, with larger percentage gains for silver this morning breaching $75 and taking the gold/silver ratio below 62.
Oil prices (WTI) slide below $98 as Project Freedom is put on pause and the U.S. says the Iran ceasefire "certainly holds"; API's weekly energy inventory readings showed a very large draw for oil (-8.1m barrels) with significant deficits for both gasoline (-6.1m) and distillate (-4.6m).
Bitcoin breaches $81K, attempting to form a new bull channel, though altcoin Ether continues to struggle in comparison, rising but experiencing smaller percentage increases and in turn taking the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio further beneath 0.029; Strategy shifts from "never sell" Bitcoin to "will sell...when it's advantageous to the company," though still aim to be "net aggregators."
US Dollar Index fell back into the 97s this morning as energy-exposed currencies climbed, and more so the yen, on potential intervention, sending USD/JPY plummeting into the 155s.
Federal Reserve's Barr that rising energy costs could "bleed over into other prices," and Bowman on the risks of consumer fraud to the financial system.
European Central Bank's Lagarde stresses energy transition urgency given the continent "imports roughly 60% of its energy"; Villeroy doesn't see enough yet to warrant a rate hike.
Indices: Majority sell bias rises in the Nasdaq 100 (to 55% from a slight sell 51%) following the latest price gains, with long bias also dropping in the Russell 2000 though still majority buy (53% from 56%); elsewhere a notable unwind in long sentiment in the DAX 40 (59% from a heavy buy 71%) while not far off shifting in the Nikkei 225 (slight long 52% from 63%).
Commodities: Price gains reduce the majority long sentiment in gold, though remain extreme buy (78% from 81% yesterday), hold in silver (86%), and shifts in WTI (from a slight sell 51% to a majority buy 55%) as shorts unwind following the latest pullback in energy.
FX: Shifts in EUR/USD (from a slight sell 51% to a slight buy 53%), moves away from the middle in GBP/USD (majority buy 58% from a slight long 54% yesterday) as buys latch on, and long traders emerge in USD/JPY, raising buy sentiment there (to 57% from 55%).
U.S. ISM Services PMI for April edges lower to 53.6 from 54.0 prior, prices paid holds at 70.7, new orders drops from 60 to 53.5 and employment component improves to 48; JOLTS job openings in March tick up to 6.87m, slightly above the 6.86m forecast but below the prior 6.92m; New Home Sales for the same month rises 8.9%; RCM/TIPP's economic optimism for May worsens to 42.6 remaining in pessimistic territory.
Chinese services PMI (RatingDog) in April improves from 52.1 to 52.6.
U.S. ADP's non-farm estimate (4:15 pm Dubai time), EIA's weekly energy inventory estimates (6:30 am), mortgage applications (3 pm), FOMC members speak.