Silver is showing early signs of a bottom as downside pressure fades and macro headwinds from yields and volatility begin to ease.
Risk appetite has improved noticeably following the 15-point peace plan put forward by the Americans to Iran earlier today, helping drive a sharp rally in silver. While Tehran is unlikely to agree to it in its current form, markets are treating it as a signal of de-escalation rather than a stalling tactic, at least for now.
If we are past peak tensions in the Gulf, the technical signals suggest the lows may be in for the precious metal, and recent correlations in the matrix below point to further upside.
Silver has shown a strong inverse relationship with US Treasury yields over both the past week and month, particularly at the front end, with moves driven by swings in energy prices and the downstream implications for Fed policy and inflation. If yields continue to ease, that should remain supportive.
It's also been trading inversely to Treasury market volatility and, to a lesser extent, the VIX, reinforcing its sensitivity to broader risk conditions. As those pressures fade, it removes another headwind.
Taken together, if tensions continue to de-escalate, the balance of risks looks skewed higher rather than lower.
Silver looks like it may have already bottomed on the daily chart.
We have a clear hammer from beneath an important support zone comprising the August 2025 uptrend and the February 6 low at $64.10, followed by a break of the March downtrend that largely captures the Iran war period. That break of structure adds to confidence that silver may have seen its low for now.
Downside pressure is easing, with RSI (14) pushing back towards 50 while MACD flattens, suggesting downside strength is fading.
Volatility is also rolling over, with ATR (14) declining after peaking, hinting the forced phase of the move has likely passed.
At the same time, stretch versus the 200DMA has largely reset, with the vulnerability model, based on a one-year lookback, near the least extended levels seen over that period, removing a key driver of directional follow-through.
The price is now testing the 100DMA from below. Above, 78.25 has acted as support and resistance at various points this year, making it the next test if the 100DMA is cleared. Beyond that, the 50DMA and the March 10 swing high around $89 are the levels to watch.
If silver fails to clear the 100DMA, the long wicks beneath $68 suggest that may be a near-term target for shorts, sitting just above the support zone from which this corrective bounce launched.