October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Thursday closed down -0.30 (-1.81%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed down -10.00 (-2.03%).
Sugar prices fell sharply Thursday due to a stronger dollar. The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 2-week high Thursday, sparking long liquidation in sugar futures.
On Wednesday, NY sugar climbed to a 1-week high and London sugar jumped to a 1.5-month high on concerns that global sugar supplies may tighten. Pakistan said this week it will import 500,000 MT of sugar, and the Philippines said it will import 424,000 MT of sugar.
Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. Last Wednesday, October NY sugar posted a contract low, and last Monday, the July NY sugar contract posted a 4.25-year low on the nearest-futures chart. Last Wednesday, Aug London sugar posted a 3.75-year nearest-futures low. Last Monday, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. On Monday, the India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall in June was 9% above normal in India and has forecast above-normal rain for July.
Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.