Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Welcome back and happy September! We hope you had a restorative Labor Day weekend.
Fall is in the air today: Steve Kornacki ranks the key elections that are on the ballot around the country this November from least to most suspenseful. Plus, our Capitol Hill team runs through the top issues members of Congress are looking to tackle as they return to Washington after a summer break.
Labor Day marks the unofficial start of the fall campaign season. Typically, in the year after a presidential election, there are three races that are closely watched nationally, but in 2025 there are four.
When it comes to suspense, here's how they stack up as the fall push begins.
- New York City. Ever since Zohran Mamdani's surprisingly emphatic victory in the Democratic primary, the race for mayor has seemed stuck in place. While Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, carries formidable political baggage, the opposition to him is divided among three candidates whose liabilities are just as glaring.
- Andrew Cuomo, who was trounced by Mamdani in the primary and is now running as an independent, remains deeply unpopular four years after his resignation as governor. Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor who avoided prosecution on federal corruption charges only after the intercession of President Donald Trump's Justice Department, has stratospherically high unfavorable numbers, too, as he pursues his own independent bid. And the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, is constricted by his party label and reputation for personal eccentricity.
- It's added up to what so far has been a low-wattage campaign. Given his party affiliation and New York's deep blue bent, Mamdani’s overall level of support in polling has been underwhelming. But it’s still well clear of any of his foes.
- Virginia. History is a major obstacle for Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Why? Because she’s a Republican and so is the current occupant of the White House. And in 11 of the last 12 gubernatorial elections in Virginia, the candidate from the president’s party has gone down in defeat.
- The trend is similar in New Jersey, the only other state which holds its governor’s race the year after a presidential election. The evidence is strong that both gubernatorial contests function in part as a referendum on the incumbent president, and a Roanoke College poll two weeks ago put Trump’s approval rating at 41% among Virginians. Earle-Sears trailed Democrat Abigail Spanberger by seven points in the same poll, which does mark an improvement for her over earlier polling, but still leaves her with an immense challenge.
- New Jersey. Republican Jack Ciattarelli is facing some similarly daunting history in New Jersey, where the president’s party has lost eight of the last nine governor’s races.
- But Ciattarelli also has some history working in his favor. It’s been more than 60 years since the same party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, something Democrats are trying to pull off this year. And the popularity of term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy is lukewarm at best in polling. Two recent surveys nonetheless show Ciattarelli trailing Rep. Mikie Sherrill, but running against Democratic rule within the state does offer him a weapon that Earle-Sears lacks in Virginia.
- California. It’s the election that truly was on no one’s radar at the start of the year, because no one had any idea it would even be taking place. But Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to blow up the state’s congressional map and draw more seats for his party will be on the ballot in November.
- Newsom is framing this as an emergency response to Texas’s mid-decade gerrymandering, which will likely net Republicans up to five new House seats from that state. And he clearly hopes his campaign will enhance his stature as a 2028 White House prospect.
- In theory, approval by the voters should be easy. California is deeply Democratic and sided with Kamala Harris by more than 20 points last year. But this is a different kind of election, and that gives Republicans who want to defeat Newsom’s plan an opening. To succeed, they don’t need to convince Californians to vote for a Republican candidate; they just need them to vote “no.” And they have some potentially compelling and ostensibly nonpartisan arguments at their disposal since the Newsom plan would circumvent an independent redistricting commission that voters themselves previously approved.
- Referendum campaigns often produce outcomes that defy partisan expectations. In 2020, for instance, California voters overwhelmingly rejected an initiative supported by the state’s Democratic establishment that would have allowed for affirmative action in public employment and education.
- It’s certainly possible that Newsom’s plan will end up passing easily. A poll last week had support for it at 48%, with 32% opposed and 20% undecided. But with that initial support under 50%, there’s the potential for volatility here. Given the stakes for House control in 2026 and Newsom’s own presidential aspirations, it makes this the most suspenseful campaign now playing out.
Members of Congress are streaming back into Washington after their August recess. And they return with a lengthy to-do list.
- Government shutdown: The top item on the agenda is the government funding deadline of Sept. 30 to avoid a shutdown.
- Any bill requires 60 votes -- and thus bipartisan support -- to pass the Senate. There's no framework or top-line agreement on how much to spend, let alone how to allocate that funding. And with just weeks to go, the division is growing rather than narrowing.
- The White House notified lawmakers Friday that it plans to bypass them and slash $4.9 billion in federal funds using a "pocket rescission," a tactic that the top congressional watchdog calls "illegal." The move drew condemnation from Democrats and Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins, R-Maine.
- Epstein files: Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., filed a discharge petition today to force a floor vote compelling the Justice Department to release all the files from the Jeffrey Epstein case.
- Massie and the Democratic co-author of the legislation, Rep. Ro Khanna of California, need at least 218 signatures -- half the members of the House -- to circumvent GOP leadership and force a vote on the issue. Khanna has said he is certain that all 212 Democrats will sign on, along with at least six Republicans.
- Tomorrow, Massie and Khanna plan to host a Capitol news conference featuring sexual abuse victims of Epstein, the convicted sex offender who took his own life in 2019, and his associate, Ghislaine Maxwell, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence for her role in recruiting and trafficking minors.
- Stock trading ban: Lawmakers often do not police themselves, but there will be a renewed and highly public bipartisan push to ban them from owning and trading individual stocks amid concerns over potential conflicts of interest.
- Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., is vowing to file a discharge petition to force a vote on a bill by Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., to ban congressional stock trading. And members of both parties have been signing onto the Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks or ETHICS Act. The bill, authored by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., would bar lawmakers, their spouses and their dependent children from owning or trading individual stocks, securities, commodities or futures.
That's all From the Politics Desk for now. Today's newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.
If you have feedback -- likes or dislikes -- email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com