This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation's capital. Every Friday, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Nathan Dean gives his insights into what's been happening and what's coming up in the nooks and crannies of government and markets.
Girding for Gridlock
I gave several presentations for Bloomberg as part of IMF/World Bank week in Washington, and I got one repeated question from audiences: What happens after the midterm elections in terms of White House policy goals?
I go into it in-depth with my election preview for those of you with a Bloomberg Terminal, but the upshot is that any legislative plans President Donald Trump may have had likely will be out the window if the Democrats take the House of Representatives. There almost certainly will be gridlock in Washington. And with gridlock, administrations often will turn to governing through regulations. In Trump's case, that means deregulation.
But this time there may be a problem: A lack of resources. The purge of government employees in the first year of the Trump administration may have left some agencies short of staff to rewrite and vet regulatory changes.
It can be a time-consuming process in most circumstances. Bloomberg's Nicola M. White and Lydia Beyoud report that the SEC in particular is facing a ticking clock for its long-list of rule changes. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, then the deregulatory party is over for anything that hasn't been finalized.
Watch for how regulators are making changes. If they offer what's known as "interpretive guidance," a future regulator can undo that with a stroke of a pen. It's not codified. If a regulator puts out what is known as a "concept release" - as the SEC did this week with a trading database Wall Street hates - that signals permanent changes are likely many quarters away, if not years.
Which leads to the ticking clock.
But there is also evidence that the administration may know this is happening. As Gregory Korte reports in "A Year After DOGE, Trump Administration Is Quietly Hiring Again," government job announcements are up 23% in March over the previous month (see the Chart of the Day below) .
Now that the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings are wrapping up, I imagine a lot of you want to know what happened between the parties, events and speeches. So, I asked several of our senior editors at Bloomberg News which articles clients should read to get a great recap. Here's what they came up with.
What To Know This Weekend
- Since my team leader reads this newsletter, my official plan is to work at Bloomberg Intelligence for another forty years. Yet retirement will someday come. So here's "A Year-by-Year Guide to Help You Retire Rich".
- I will admit I am not a fan of LIV Golf. But I do find the recent developments in the future of the league fascinating. Here's Giles Turner with "Saudis Now Want Sports to Make Money, Clouding LIV Golf's Future".
Today's Top News
- Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, fueling optimism that a deal to end their war is in reach after Tehran announced the Strait of Hormuz was open again.
- A handful of oil tankers were racing toward the Strait of Hormuz after Iran declared it open, though industry groups urged caution and several shipowners and traders said they needed more clarity about the status of the waterway.
- The Supreme Court sided with Chevron in a protracted fight over jurisdiction stemming from the state of Louisiana's lawsuits seeking to hold the oil and gas industry legally responsible for the rapid erosion of its coastal wetlands.
- The Trump administration plans to offer at least 400,000 acres in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas drilling rights in June, marking its first such sale in the rugged area prized for its rich wildlife.
- The administration rejected a request from CenterPoint Energy to allow a 60-year-old coal plant in Indiana to close, forcing the utility to keep operating a unit it says is costly and unreliable.
- The Justice Department is shaking up the team probing former CIA Director John Brennan as part of a broad investigation into an alleged years-long conspiracy against Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Kevin Warsh will get his first major public platform as Federal Reserve Chair nominee next week to address his longstanding concerns over the central bank's outsized market footprint.
- The acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Todd Lyons, will leave the agency at the end of May after a tumultuous year managing Trump's mass arrest and deportation campaign.
- The Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to slash flights at Chicago O'Hare International Airport this summer to prevent overscheduling and flight disruptions at the busy hub.
Must Reads From Bloomberg Government
- Democratic House and Senate candidates benefited from a fundraising boom in the first quarter of this election year, a sign of increased confidence the party can win control of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms.
- The Trump administration proposed regulations mandating colleges and universities be accountable for how much their graduates earn after leaving their programs.
Watch & Listen
- Today on Bloomberg Television's Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz interviewed Natasha Hall, associate fellow at Chatham House, about the negotiations between the US and Iran and the related ceasefire between Israel and and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- On the program at 5 p.m., they talk with Democratic Representative Jake Auchincloss about the situation in the Middle East and the agenda ahead for Congress.
- On the Big Take podcast, host David Gura sits down with Stephanie Flanders -- Bloomberg's head of Economics and Politics and host of Trumponomics -- and senior economic writer Shawn Donnan to discuss the International Monetary Fund's revised global growth forecast and whether governments are equipped to contain the next economic crisis.
Chart of the Day
A year after Trump dispatched chainsaw-wielding billionaire Elon Musk on a high profile mission to eliminate 300,000 federal jobs and shrink the government, the administration is quietly hiring again. Federal government employment is now the lowest its been since 2009, approaching the 2 million mark. But officials expect to step up hiring by the end of the second quarter. Job announcements posted to the federal government's main hiring portal were up 23% in March from the previous month. The government has launched new recruiting drives for tech staffers, attorneys and project managers. The budget proposal that Trump submitted to Congress this month would give the government headroom to grow the workforce, but there's significant churn in store. Head counts at the departments of Agriculture, Education and Labor, as well as at NASA, would drop; but agencies including Commerce, Defense, Interior and Transportation would see net increases.
What's Next
- Virginia voters will decide whether to back a redrawing of the state's congressional districts on Tuesday.
- Retail sales for March will be reported Tuesday.
- Pending home sales in March also will be reported Tuesday.
- The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing Tuesday on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.
- The University of Michigan's final read of consumer sentiment in April will be published next Friday.
- King Charles is scheduled to make his first state visit to the US the week of April 27.
- The Florida legislature convenes a special session on redistricting April 28.