President Donald Trump has edged back into positive approval territory in a new national survey, bucking a broader polling picture that continues to show him deeply underwater nationwide.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement earlier this week: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."
Trump's second‑term approval has been shaped by sharp polarization and uneven reactions to his agenda. With the midterms approaching, even isolated shifts are being closely scrutinized for political significance.
One national poll has cut against the broader trend in Trump's approval ratings -- though analysts urge caution in reading too much into the result.
A new InsiderAdvantage survey, conducted February 17-18 among 800 likely voters using a mix‑mode text and panel methodology, found Trump with 50 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points, placing the president narrowly above water.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said the result reflects a rebound after a period of weaker approval, arguing Trump has returned to roughly the 50 percent level, close to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
He pointed to what he described as more orderly and strategic ICE raids, along with signs the economy is turning positive, as factors behind the shift.
Towery also said that while the previous government shutdown appeared to hurt Trump's ratings, the most recent one has coincided with stronger numbers.
However, polling analysts say the result stands apart from most other recent surveys and should be interpreted carefully.
Writing in the Silver Bulletin, analyst Eli McKown‑Dawson cautioned that individual polls can diverge from the broader picture because of differences in methodology, sampling and timing, even when the overall trend remains unchanged.
McKown‑Dawson noted that Trump's net approval recently ticked up slightly to negative 13.6 after hitting a second‑term low of negative 15.0, largely because the InsiderAdvantage poll placed Trump at plus four net approval -- the second such result from the firm in the past month.
He described those figures as meaningfully different from most other pollsters, adding that while InsiderAdvantage has a "decent pollster rating (B+)," it has been "consistently bullish on Trump 2.0" compared with the average. As a result, he wrote, the poll is adjusted for "house effects" when incorporated into polling averages, effectively treating the result as Trump minus four rather than plus four.
Beyond his core supporters, Trump continues to face broad resistance nationally.
A February 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll found that 56 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump's overall job performance, compared with 39 percent who approved, leaving him 17 points underwater nationwide.
Public sentiment was even more negative when voters were asked about Trump's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation.
In that same poll, 57 percent said they disapproved of his approach to the issue -- a higher level of disapproval than his overall job rating.
YouGov's analysis shows little recent movement in attitudes toward Trump, either broadly or on the Epstein matter, pointing to hardened views rather than a shifting electorate.
The divergence mirrors a long‑standing dynamic in Trump‑era polling: intense support among loyalists coupled with sustained resistance across the wider public, a split that continues to shape the midterm landscape.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics."
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said: "After a period of weakness in his approval ratings, President Trump has come back to the 50 percent level, near to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in 2024. Other pollsters who also have correctly polled Trump in past election cycles are showing the same upward trend. Rasmussen Reports' approval shows Trump's approval on the rise as well.
"Basically it is a combination of ICE raids becoming orderly and strategic and obvious evidence that the economy is actually turning to the positive. While the last government shutdown appeared to hurt Trump's ratings, this one appears to be actually helping his numbers.
"There are clearly two camps of pollsters who utilize different methods of data collection and weighting in their approval ratings. But I would note that those firms who most accurately polled President Trump's three elections use similar methodologies.
"Basically the country is where it is when Trump was elected. Highly polarized, but at the moment, more supportive of Trump than not."
Trump wrote on Truth Social this month: "The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!"
Senior data journalist David Montgomery and director of survey data journalism Taylor Orth, writing for YouGov, said: "A majority of Americans disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling his overall job as president, and even more disapprove of how Trump is handling the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. These negative views of Trump's handling of his overall job and the Epstein investigation have changed little in recent weeks."
As Trump pushes ahead with his second‑term agenda, future policy battles and polling releases will test whether the InsiderAdvantage result reflects a lasting shift or a short‑lived outlier.