The deployment of the national guard in Washington ignores the data. But Democrats must not ignore how people feel.
In most of America's largest cities, crime, especially violent crime, is down. But the fear of crime is increasing.
Donald Trump has made a career out of ignoring the reality of crime rates and of stoking that fear. Well before he entered politics and throughout his political career, he has talked about city life as life in a proverbial jungle.
In 2022, he talked frequently about the "blood-soaked streets of our once-great cities" and said: "Cities are rotting, and they are indeed cesspools of blood." And he never strays far from that playbook.
On 11 August, the president returned to his demagogic characterizations of America's urban areas when he deployed national guard and federal law enforcement agents to the streets of Washington DC. He said the city was awash in "crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor".
He claimed that "crime is out of control in the District of Columbia". In fact, violent crime in the District of Columbia is the lowest it has been in more than three decades.
But Trump didn't just ignore the data. He leaned into a different problem in Washington: fear of crime.
Referring to Washingtonians who like to jog, the president said: "People tell me they can't run any more. They're just afraid."
And he was not content to target just the nation's capital. "You look at Chicago," he said, "how bad it is. You look at Los Angeles, how bad it is. We have other cities in a very bad - New York is a problem. And then you have, of course, Baltimore and Oakland. We don't even mention that any more. They're so far gone. We're not going to let it happen."
Never mind that, like Washington, as CNN reports, Chicago, Baltimore and other cities also have had "substantial declines in 2024, 2025 or both".
So far, Democratic political leaders have repeated those statistics as if that in itself will carry the day. In so doing, they are repeating a mistake made by Joe Biden when he asked people to focus on economic statistics that showed declines in the rate of inflation rather than their lived reality.
Unfortunately, the statistics matter much less than the fear of crime. That fear is a real problem, and Democrats need to acknowledge and respond to it.
Let's start with the District of Columbia. A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted in mid-August found that 31% of Washingtonians said crime was an "'extremely serious' or a 'very serious'" problem in the District. Last year, the same poll found that number to be 65%. Some of this decline can be attributed to the fact that residents of the city overwhelmingly oppose what the president has done and don't want to be seen as lending it legitimacy.
But however you measure it, fear of crime is not just a District of Columbia problem.
In New York City, 75% of residents say that crime is a serious problem. As an essay posted on Vital City puts it: "Whatever crime statistics show, most of us are worried that it could happen to us. That feeling is nebulous and hard to overcome ... We the people say crime is a serious problem, and most of us will continue, for now, to look over our shoulders and worry when someone we love leaves home."
National surveys suggest that "Americans' fear of crime is at a 30-year high". Other survey evidence highlights the fact that "73% say crime has 'some' or 'major' impact on how they live their lives". Among Black and Hispanic Americans, that number is even higher.
Not surprisingly, many Americans now favor long prison sentences for convicted criminals.
Explanations vary for the paradox that as crime rates fall, fear of crime persists.
Crime stories often dominate local news coverage, and the more gruesome the crime, the greater the coverage. That is why fear of crime is driven not by a dispassionate examination of data but by the power of individual stories of victimization.
That pattern is intensified by social media. Studies have shown that social media usage stokes crime fear.
Demographics also matter. Crime fears are greater among older people, and, as the population ages, those fears increase.
Fear of crime is also associated with a generalized sense of disorderliness in our communities and the world. And, as the economist and criminal justice scholar John Roman argues, because "our collective tolerance for disorder is declining", our fear of crime is increasing.
Of course, it doesn't help that Trump uses the bully pulpit and his public visibility to emphasize and exaggerate the crime problem as part of his authoritarian project. But blaming Trump for the fear of crime problem is not any more of a winning political strategy than reciting the latest data on falling crime rates.
Democrats can't and shouldn't run away from either the crime problem or the fear of crime problem. They will have no credibility in offering responses to the former until they establish credibility on the latter.
They would be well-advised to tackle the fear problem openly and to embrace responses like investing in programs that repair public spaces and revitalize neighborhoods while also being clear that people who fear crime have reason to want to see more police on the street.
Trump knows the potency of the fear of crime problem. That's why he boasted that after his deployment of national guard in Washington, DC, "People are feeling safe already ... They're not afraid any more."
But we don't need the national guard to do what local police can do when they are well-trained, responsive to the needs of all communities and well-resourced. The best long-term response to the president's agenda for American cities is to make sure that the people who live there have more confidence in their safety and less fear of crime.