HOUSTON - The massive military operation in Iran comes at a delicate moment for US-China relations, just ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to Beijing on March 31.
The White House has not provided updates on the high-stakes summit, but analysts say the Iran strikes would sharpen the great power rivalry.
Mr Han Lin, the China managing director of The Asia Group, said there is a "low-to-moderate" chance that the trip could be postponed or cancelled.
"In February, I gave it an 80 per cent chance (of it happening) after a senior team of the US Treasury came to China to meet their counterparts and discuss plans about the Trump visit," said Mr Lin, who is based in Shanghai. "All the signalling was positive. Now, it seems considerably less so," he said, adding there was talk that many in the White House preferred Mr Trump not to go.
"The strikes on Iran accelerate a dynamic already in motion," he added. "Namely, the US is stretched thin, China is watching carefully, and both powers are increasingly aware that every regional crisis is also a proxy test of their global rivalry."
The ground has shifted significantly after the Feb 20 US Supreme Court ruling struck down Mr Trump's reciprocal tariffs. "Trump will still want headline-grabbing wins. But without the tariff stick, the leverage shifts," said Mr Lin. This means Chinese President Xi Jinping is more likely to extend only "selective, symbolic concessions".
There could be a quiet "scheduling postponement" if either side calculates the optics of Mr Trump staying home outweigh the optics of showing up in Beijing, Mr Lin said.
But former US diplomat David Meale, now with Eurasia Group, said the trip would proceed because Mr Trump is "capable of managing the Iran situation while keeping focus on broader foreign policy goals".
Behind Mr Trump, meanwhile, stands a far more hawkish administration. "If he concludes that engagement with China yields limited political or economic payoff, the result is unlikely to be a drift, it will be an escalation. A wide range of tougher China measures would quickly come into play," Mr Lin said.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed a Trump visit, Mr Lin pointed out, but it has not officially confirmed a date.
Professor Dennis Wilder, a former White House Asia hand who now teaches at Georgetown University, said some media reports that preparations for Mr Trump's visit are in a state of chaos are overdone.
"I have been involved in many high-level engagements between the US and China in the past, and a certain amount of uncertainty just before a visit is always to be expected," said Mr Meale who has served in Beijing, Taipei and Hong Kong.