Trump's threat makes it far more likely Powell stays on.
President Trump doubled down on the Justice Department's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying in a television interview that he won't drop the probe and threatening to fire Powell if he doesn't resign when his term as chair ends next month.
"Well then I'll have to fire him, OK?" Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired Wednesday morning.
Powell's term as Fed chair ends in a month. However, he has the option to remain as a voting member of the Fed's board until 2028. Last month, Powell said he had "no intention of leaving" the Fed until the investigation is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality."
When asked about that in the Fox Business interview, Trump replied: "If he's not leaving on time, I've held back firing him, I've wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial, you know. I want to be uncontroversial."
Trump seemed to suggest he would stand by the probe even if it obstructs the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to be the next Fed chair.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has said that he won't support Warsh's nomination until the probe into Powell is resolved.
Asked if he thought Tillis would vote for Warsh, Trump said, "He might not, but that's why Tillis is no longer a senator."
Tillis, a Republican, is retiring but remains a senator.
The Justice Department investigation is examining whether Powell lied to Congress in testimony about a Fed building renovation. It appears to be proceeding: On Tuesday, prosecutors visited the construction site.
Powell has said the investigation is a pretext, part of Trump's long-running efforts to influence how the Fed sets interest rates.
Either Trump is totally ignorant, or he wants a showdown with the Fed.
Those are not mutually exclusive; it could be both.
Fed Chairs normally resign when their term as Chair ends, but there is no requirement.
Powell can stay on until 2028. It's Powell's option, not Trump's.
Given Trump's threat, my base case now is Powell stays on. Powell will not want to appear to bend to the illegal demands of Trump.
Powell will stay on and Trump will drag this out in the courts.
I can give you the court results in advance, guaranteed, assuming Trump fires Powell and this is not some mindless bluff.
A Supreme Court loss can come in one of two ways.
- The Supreme Court hears the case and Trump loses.
- The Supreme Court declines the case thereby affirming the Appellate Court decision.
Other than prolonging Trump's agony, there is little difference between 3A and 3B.
For now I am inclined to believe 3B. The Supreme Court will not want to waste its time on such obviously ridiculous matters.
Trump has tried several time to subpoena Powell over alleged mishandling of renovations to the Fed building,
Memorandum Opinion
"Jerome 'Too Late' Powell has done it again!!! He is TOO LATE, and actually, TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL, to have the job of Fed Chair. He is costing our Country TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS . . . . Put another way, 'Too Late' is a TOTAL LOSER, and our Country is paying the price!" Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Truth Soc. (July 31, 2025, at 7:11 AM), https://perma.cc/PX9L-RPSD. That is one of at least 100 statements that the President or his deputies have made attacking the Chair of the Federal Reserve and pressuring him to lower interest rates.
So is this: "'Too Late' Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars. He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government . . . . TOO LATE's an American Disgrace!" Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Truth Soc. (June 19, 2025, at 10:04 AM), https://perma.cc/748P-CN6T.
Perhaps it comes as no surprise, then, that the D.C. U.S. Attorney's Office has recently opened a criminal investigation into Powell. It has served two subpoenas on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, seeking records about recent renovations of the Board's buildings and testimony that Powell delivered to Congress that briefly discussed those renovations. The Board has now responded with a Motion to Quash, contending that the subpoenas are merely part of the gameplan to pressure Powell to bend to the President's wishes or to get rid of him. The case thus asks: Did prosecutors issue those subpoenas for a proper purpose? The Court finds that they did not. There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas' dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will. On the other side of the scale, the Government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the President. The Court must thus conclude that the asserted justifications for these subpoenas are mere pretexts. It will therefore grant the Board's Motion to Quash. It will also grant the Board's Motion to Partially Unseal the Motion to Quash, related briefing, and this Opinion.
Conclusion
A mountain of evidence suggests that the Government served these subpoenas on the Board to pressure its Chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning. On the other side of the scale, the Government has produced essentially zero evidence to suspect Chair Powell of a crime; indeed,
its justifications are so thin and unsubstantiated that the Court can only conclude that they are pretextual. The Court therefore finds that the subpoenas were issued for an improper purpose and will quash them. It will also unseal redacted versions of the Motion to Quash, related briefing, and this Opinion.
"This ruling confirms just how weak and frivolous the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell is and it is nothing more than a failed attack on Fed independence. We all know how this is going to end and the D.C. U.S. Attorney's Office should save itself further embarrassment and move on. Appealing the ruling will only delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair."
Tillis has stated he will hold all Trump appointments until Trump drops the case against Powell.
That includes Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.
It would be idiotic for many reasons to appeal the above ruling but guess what.
On March 13, I commented Judge Chastises Trump's DOJ Over "Frivolous" Subpoenas of the Fed Chair
These legal morons are truly gluttons for punishment. The odds of winning this appeal are essentially zero.
So, I welcome the appeal. It will only make the DOJ look stupider when the ruling happens.
Now we have a third case headed to the courts, assuming Trump does fire Powell.
The second case is Trump's firing of Lisa Cook. The Supreme Court has taken that case.
Powell's chair term ends May 15. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as successor. But Powell has publicly affirmed he would serve as chair pro tem if confirmation is delayed.
His separate governor term runs until 2028, giving him the legal right to remain on the Board.
Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook over ridiculous charges that she lied on mortgage application.
The irony is that its proven that Trump did lie on mortgage applications.
I discussed the Lisa Cook case several times, most recently on January 22, 2026.
The DOJ was amusingly feeble in the SC regarding the Fed’s Lisa Cook.
Some of the back and forth between Trump’s Solicitor General John Sauer and the Court was downright funny. Here are a couple of clips.
GENERAL SAUER: Surely, that if investors are jittery or whatever the argument is, you would have seen that on August 25th, and you did not see that. In fact, you have the surprised --
JUSTICE BARRETT: Well, I’ll interrupt you there to say that I don’t want to be in the business of predicting exactly what the market’s going to do.
GENERAL SAUER: What the Court has to do is weigh -- essentially, you have those amicus briefs as a reflection of very elite opinion; elite opinion that what’s happened here --
JUSTICE BARRETT: But there’s a risk, General Sauer.
GENERAL SAUER: Yes.
JUSTICE BARRETT: I don’t want to be responsible for quantifying that risk. I’m a judge, not an economist.
JUSTICE JACKSON: You’re -- you’re -- you’re repeating --
GENERAL SAUER: -- by seeing it so low --
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Counsel --
JUSTICE JACKSON: You’re repeating the allegation. What I’m asking you is the evidence that supports that allegation.
GENERAL SAUER: Well, the removal order addresses that because it -- JUSTICE JACKSON: What is the removal order? The -- the -- the Truth Social post?
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: And why is that independence important in your view? GENERAL SAUER: For -- I -- I don’t -- we don’t dispute the importance of that for many of the reasons that their amici say; we emphasize that there’s a balance struck here. This is not a ironclad “you can never be removed.” There is a cause removal authorized in -
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: But, on that, your position that there’s no judicial review, no process required, no remedy available; a very low bar for cause that the president alone determines; I mean, that would weaken, if not shatter; the independence of the Federal Reserve that we just discussed.
GENERAL SAUER: We disagree with that.
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: Let’s talk about the real-world downstream effects of this because; if this were set as a precedent; it seems to me; just thinking big picture; what goes around comes around. All of the current president’s appointees would likely be removed for cause on January 20th; 2029; if there’s a Democratic President or January 20th; 2033; and then we’re really at at-will removal. So what are we doing here?
GENERAL SAUER: Yeah.
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: What is -- you know; we started -- that’s why I started with what’s the purpose of the independence in the for-cause removal. If we accept all these no procedure; no judicial review; no remedy; you know; that’s what’s going to happen; I think; and then -- then where are we? So do you dispute that that is; you know; the -- the real-world effect?
GENERAL SAUER: I cannot predict what future presidents may or may not do; but the argument strikes me as a policy argument --
The Lisa Cook case sets the tone for Trump's latest nonsense.
Why anyone would stay working for Trump when they are guaranteed to look like idiots in court is a mystery.
Trump is destined to become a three-time Fed court-case loser (subpoena of Powell, Lisa Cook, firing Powell).
All Trump can do is make the DOJ look totally stupid in court, again. From that aspect, bring it on. However, it is a waste of the court's time.
Indeed, look for a judge to make this comment "Why are you wasting the court's time on this?"
I look forward to again saying "I Told You So", just as I did with tariffs and will also do with Birthright Citizenship.