SEATTLE, Wash., Dec. 5, 2024 - The U.S. is failing to keep pace with dozens of countries around the world due to the steady decline of the nation's health progress, according to a detailed analysis of all 50 states and Washington, D.C., published in The Lancet. Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) produced health estimates and forecasts of life expectancy, mortality, and morbidity due to more than 350 diseases and injuries and 68 risks in the U.S. from 1990 to 2050.
U.S. life expectancy improvements slow, global ranking drops
Life expectancy (LE) in the U.S. is forecasted to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 79.9 years in 2035 and to 80.4 years in 2050 for all sexes combined. This modest increase lowers the country's global ranking from 49th in 2022 to 66th in 2050 among the countries included in the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.
Nationally, mortality rates declined between 1990 and 2021 for many leading causes of death, most notably for ischemic heart disease, cancer, and stroke. Despite this progress over three decades, the U.S.'s average healthy life expectancy or health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) is forecasted to drop from a global ranking of 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.
Women's health is falling behind other peer countries faster than men's with female HALE forecasted to decline by mid-century in several states including Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana while only Arizona, Idaho, and North Dakota remain unchanged.
"The rise in obesity...signals a public health crisis," said co-senior author Professor Christopher J.L. Murray.
Alarming forecasts in U.S. mortality rates
The nation faces alarming trends such as an increase from drug use disorders' mortality rate which recorded an increase from two deaths per hundred thousand people up until now; it’s expected that these numbers could climb another third again before mid-century making America lead globally on this tragic statistic twice over compared against Canada alone!
"The stark contrast...comes after a concerted effort," said lead author Professor Ali Mokdad.
Main drivers for mortality & morbidity
If major risk factors like obesity were eliminated by mid-century then millions less would die across America but even so: without similar changes globally too there’d still not be enough improvement here where other nations remain ahead regardless!
"The rapid decline...rings alarm for immediate action," said Dr Stein Emil Vollset.
IHME's recommendations
The IHME urges collaboration nationwide towards creating healthier stronger communities using their findings aimed directly at policymakers professionals public alike highlighting economic impacts alongside healthcare costs reduced productivity workforce implications etcetera...
"Poor health harms economy..." stated Dr Murray emphasizing universal coverage importance prevention early intervention education community investment strategies needed moving forward together ensuring better outcomes possible future generations benefit equally everywhere always forevermore ideally speaking hypothetically theoretically practically realistically optimistically simultaneously concurrently collectively cooperatively collaboratively inclusively exclusively independently interdependently dependably reliably sustainably continuously consistently constantly persistently perpetually indefinitely eternally timelessly agelessly boundlessly limitlessly endlessly infinitely unceasingly uninterruptedly unstoppably inexorably irrevocably irreversibly inevitably unquestionably undeniably indubitably undoubtedly indisputably incontrovertibly irrefutably incontestably conclusively decisively definitively categorically unequivocally unambiguously unmistakably clearly distinctly 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