Virginia redistricting ruling deals blow to Democrats' midterm hopes
The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday dealt a blow to Democrats' hopes of flipping the House this fall, throwing out the redistricting referendum that was set to give Democrats a midterm boost.
The Virginia court's decision invalidates the state's newly adopted congressional map, which would've expanded Democrats' expected edge from 6-5 to 10-1.
The ruling does not erase Democrats' chances of flipping the House in November, when both low approval numbers for President Trump and historical trends are expected to work in their favor. But it's a setback in the redistricting arms race after new, GOP-friendly maps in multiple red states had given Republicans more than a dozen new pickup opportunities.
It also comes just days after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Louisiana's maps weakened a portion of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and sparked new talk of redistricting in more red states across the South.
Democrats seethed at the outcome, accusing the GOP of hypocrisy.
"Today, four unelected judges decided to cast aside the will of the voters. This is a setback that sends a terrible message to Americans - the powerful and elite will do everything they can to silence you," said Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), chair of the Democrats' House campaign arm, adding that voters will "power Democrats to the House majority" in the fall.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who championed the Democratic-friendly map that was approved by voters last fall in the Golden State, pointed out in a post on social platform X that this cycle's redistricting changes in five red states were made without going out to voters.
"Virginia's voter-approved maps thrown out. MAGA has rigged the system," Newsom said.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) similarly contrasted Virginia's process with "Republican-led states that have redrawn their maps through backroom deals."
"If the Virginia Supreme Court had legitimate concerns about this referendum, the time to stop it would have been before three million Virginians cast their ballots," the senator said in a statement. "But the Court let the process move forward, and Virginians sent a message loud and clear: we see President Trump's brazen power grab in states across the country, and we won't stand for it."
Virginians last month voted to approve a state constitutional amendment allowing the Legislature to temporarily draw new lines, which were expected to hold until the redistricting power reverted to a bipartisan commission after the 2030 census.
Big names and money poured into the effort on both sides, and the measure narrowly passed, putting Democrats on a more even keel with Republicans in the redistricting tit for tat.
Altogether, Democrats were expected to gain up to 10 seats from voter-passed redistricting plans in California and Virginia and a court-ordered change in Utah. Republicans at that point were predicted to gain nine.
John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, told The Associated Press at the time that Virginia had "successfully blunted Trump's attempt to completely hijack the midterms."
Friday's ruling changes that numbers game.
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said that after the Virginia court decision, "You're talking about a one- to two-seat pickup being what Democrats can hope for, versus potentially four seats."
"That's not going to entirely decide House control, but ... [Republicans] are now in a position where they are going to pick up more seats from just redistricting fallout than Democrats," Skelley said. "And before this, it was a bit closer to neutral."
The Virginia ruling was the latest in a barrage of redistricting developments in recent weeks.
Florida moved to redistrict after the Virginia vote, giving the GOP as many as four pickup opportunities in the Sunshine State.
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision ruling Louisiana's map unconstitutional set off a wave of additional redistricting attempts in the South, including in South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Tennessee lawmakers also approved a new map this past week, after the VRA ruling, setting Republicans up to gain the lone Democratic seat in the state's nine-member House delegation.
In a best-case scenario for Republicans, new maps in nine states that have made or are considering GOP-friendly changes, plus Democratic-friendly maps in California and Utah, result in a net of 13 flipped seats for the GOP, according to a Cook Political Report analysis.
Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman in a post on X called the ruling an "enormous setback" for Democrats.
But all hope isn't lost for Democrats this fall, experts say.
In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Republicans and Democrats each pick up six seats, resulting in a wash, according to Cook Political Report.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, forecast on X that 211 seats at least lean toward Republicans compared with 208 that at least lean toward Democrats, with 16 toss-up House contests.
"I do think it's reasonable to think Ds will win the bulk of the Toss-ups, though, and quite possibly more beyond that," Kondik said.
Skelley told The Hill that while the Virginia ruling clearly helped Republicans, Democrats are "still favored to take the House."
"This did not change that," he continued. "It just ... lowers their ceiling for the seats they can gain, and it does mean that they just have to win more swingy seats to do it instead of being sort of guaranteed pickups in a place like Virginia."
Justin Levitt, a constitutional law professor at Loyola Law School who maintains the website All About Redistricting, told TheHillthat Virginia's ruling "makes the road for Democrats to retake Congress slightly more uphill, but in no way out of reach for an electorate that is as upset with the status quote as we've seen in a very long time."
Democrats are also considering challenges to the Virginia ruling as the state's primaries -- which were already delayed to August for the referendum -- quickly approach, though it's unclear what path they could pursue.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called the decision "an unprecedented and undemocratic action that cannot stand," vowing that "we are exploring all options to overturn this shocking decision."
"MAGA Republicans have adopted voter suppression as a strategy, as also evidenced by far-right extremists on the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act to open the door to a Jim Crow-like attack on Black representation across the American South," Jeffries said.
"Whether the map used in 2026 is that chosen by voters or that chosen by courts, Virginians will soundly reject this President and his spineless allies in 2026, and we will do all we can to help achieve that end," Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said.
Republicans are predictably cheering the Virginia ruling.
Trump called the ruling a "huge win for the Republican Party, and America, in Virginia" in a post on Truth Social.
"The Virginia Supreme Court has affirmed what we believed from the beginning -- the hastily drawn egregious gerrymander was unconstitutional. This ruling is a victory for democracy and ensures Virginians have fair representation in Congress," Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a post on X.
Still, Democrats are projecting optimism about their chances this fall.
Republicans can only afford to lose a few seats this fall if they want to hang on to their slim House majority. And they're facing new headwinds from poor approval numbers for Trump coupled with the historic trend of a sitting president's party losing seats in the midterms.
Voter frustration over the redistricting war could also end up backfiring on Republicans, Levitt said, noting that "partisan gerrymandering is effectively a sea wall that acts to restrain normal tides but can't stop a tsunami."
"Democratic voters are going to be extra mad and extra motivated in November in Virginia and everywhere else the Republicans are gerrymandering," said Virginia Democratic strategist Jared Leopold, forecasting that the ruling, while "disappointing," will supercharge Democratic turnout and spur on future redistricting pushes.
"The Virginia vote proved that Democrats could successfully fight fire with fire, from an electoral perspective," Leopold said. "This definitely makes the hill harder to climb for Democrats, but the environment is definitely on Democrats' side, and this will increase turnout for among Democratic voters in November."