Voters in Wisconsin and northwest Georgia will head to the polls on Tuesday to weigh in on contests that could offer insights into the political winds in two key swing states heading into the 2026 midterms.
In the Badger State, voters will pick a new state Supreme Court justice, possibly expanding the court's liberal majority, in an election that comes a year after tech billionaire and former Trump administration official Elon Musk's failed high-profile effort to add a conservative to the court.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, a special election runoff will decide who replaces former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) three months after she left Washington amid a feud with President Trump.
Here's what to know about Tuesday's races:
Trump keeps distance in Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Trump has notably stayed mum in Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where the Democratic-backed candidate, Chris Taylor, is competing against conservative Maria Lazar for an open seat on the high court.
The race has drawn notably less attention than last year's election for another seat on the state Supreme Court, largely because this year's race won't impact which faction controls the majority.
Liberals currently enjoy a 4-3 edge on the Badger State's high court. However, if Taylor wins Tuesday's election, that lead would expand to 5-2.
Trump's decision not to endorse Lazar marks a departure from his 2025 stance. Trump, as well as Musk, were deeply involved in Wisconsin's judicial race -- which broke spending records.
The president's move, however, may be rooted in his rising unpopularity in the state, where he sees low approval ratings.
A Marquette Law School poll released last month showed Trump at a 42 percent approval rating and 56 percent disapproval rating in the state. The polling is a far cry from February 2025, when a similar survey showed the president at a 48 percent approval rating and 51 percent disapproval rating.
GOP likely to cushion slim House majority in Georgia contest
A Tuesday runoff in Georgia will decide who replaces Greene in the Peach State's 14th Congressional District, a race that is likely to bolster House Republicans' slim majority in Congress.
Republican Clay Fuller is squaring off against Democrat Shawn Harris, who ran against Greene in 2024 and lost by roughly 30 points. The special election shifted to a runoff after neither candidate notched the majority they needed to win outright in March.
Harris has led the fundraising race and notched support from the likes of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and former Transportation secretary and possible 2028 presidential contender Pete Buttigieg. He won the most votes in the initial March 10 contest, but Republican candidates outnumbered Democrats and splintered voter support.
Trump has thrown his weight behind Fuller, and the chances of a Democratic flip are ultimately a long shot in a district the president won by around 37 percentage points in his 2024 White House bid, according to The Downballot.
More than a dozen candidates sought to replace Greene, a long-time Make America Great Again stalwart who broke with Trump ahead of her dramatic exit from Capitol Hill last year. The controversial former congresswoman has stayed out of the race even as her firebrand persona looms large.
Barring a long-shot Harris victory, Fuller's likely win will help the GOP cushion its majority in the lower chamber as the party seeks to hold onto its edge in the 2026 midterms elections. Both Harris and Fuller are vying for their parties' nomination in Georgia's May 16 primary for a full term in the seat.
Wisconsin Democrats expected to notch another judicial win
Liberals are favored to win Tuesday's election in the Badger State, expanding their majority on the state Supreme Court. Taylor, the liberal candidate, has a clear fundraising and polling edge over her GOP-backed opponent, Lazar.
The last time a conservative candidate notched a seat on the high court was 2019, with Democratic-backed candidates successfully securing a majority with three victories since then.
As Wisconsin Democrats' prepare for a likely victory, some Republican operatives have criticized Lazar's candidacy, arguing she's done little to appeal to the GOP base.
Taylor's campaign has "done a very effective job of inserting issues that matter to progressive voters, chief among them abortion, and making the case that that is on the line Tuesday, without necessarily calling themselves a Democrat or a liberal," one Wisconsin GOP operative who's run statewide races told The Hill ahead of the race.
Yet, the race has also underscored some of the GOP's overarching woes in Wisconsin, as the state party has struggled to compete with Democratic fundraising and field operations.
Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming, however, has dismissed these concerns, noting that Republicans hold the majority in both state legislative chambers and control two competitive House districts.
"Sometimes, when people lose, they look for places to blame," he told The Hill.
Contests to gauge voter enthusiasm in key swing states
Tuesday's elections offer a preview of voter enthusiasm in two key swing states as the midterm season heats up.
In both the Georgia special runoff and the Wisconsin Supreme Court contest, the winners will head right to their new seats -- but they come ahead of critical primaries in both states that could tee up major contests for the midterms this fall.
Next month, Georgians will vote in primaries in a toss-up Senate race, as Republicans vie to oust incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state Trump won by 2 points in 2024. And candidates have crowded in on both sides of the aisle in the race for governor; incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.
In August, Wisconsin voters will also weigh in on a toss-up race for governor after incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) decided against a reelection bid. And Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) is running to hang on to his seat, is one of fewer than two dozen House seats rated as 2026 toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
As Democrats celebrate a string of off-year and special election wins, this week's Georgia and Wisconsin races could provide clues on where voter enthusiasm and Democrats' momentum stand months out from the midterms as they aim to flip key seats this fall.