Oil prices commanded consumer attention when they soared near $120 a barrel early Monday. President Trump attempted to calm markets by telling CBS News that he believes "the war is very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped below $90 a barrel in response.
Yet, oil prices, much like the stock market, have short memories -- and a headline can spark a reversal. If the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz doesn't resume soon, JPMorgan Chase recently warned that oil prices could top $100 a barrel again.
The national average gas price is currently $3.45 per gallon. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Hann said there is an 80% chance that $4 gas could happen "within the next month, or sooner," adding prices could climb to "roughly $3.75 to $3.95 this week alone."
Trump has so far dismissed any move for the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, saying, "We've got a lot of oil," and adding that higher oil prices would be "healed very quickly."
Can oil from the SPR spare Americans more pain at the pump? And if so, how much could it reduce gas prices -- and for how long?
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an emergency supply of crude oil stored in 60 salt caverns at four Gulf Coast facilities. Two are near Houston and Beaumont, Texas, and two are in Louisiana near Lake Charles and Baton Rouge. With a total capacity of 714 million barrels of oil, the SPR currently holds 415 million barrels.
Trump's promise to refill the reserve at a cost of $1 billion was included in the One Big Beautiful Bill, but was cut by Congress before the measure moved to the White House.
There have been four emergency releases of oil from the SPR, as ordered by a sitting U.S. president:
In the event of $4 or $5-a-gallon gas -- or higher -- tapping the contingency American oil supply might not provide the relief consumers are looking for.
Following the 2022 release of 240 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the U.S. Treasury reported two estimates of how the emergency oil supplies affected gasoline prices at U.S. pumps.
One analysis estimated that prices per gallon were lowered from 13 to 31 cents; another estimated a 33-cent reduction.
Also, any addition to the oil supply from emergency reserves is a temporary fix, at best.
The U.S. consumes a little more than 20 million barrels of oil per day. A 200-million-barrel release would provide a 10-day supply of oil.
The U.S is not the only country with emergency oil reserves. It is estimated that Venezuela leads the global supply with over 303 billion barrels, a fifth of the world's total.
Countries associated with the International Association of Energy, including the Members of the Group of Seven (G7), hold a reserve of over 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil and refined fuels.
Oil prices fell early Monday on expectations that G7 finance ministers would release 400 million barrels of oil reserves. However, the group decided to hold on to their petroleum supplies for now, though officials said they are prepared to tap them if necessary.
"We are not there yet," Roland Lescure, the French finance minister, said after the meeting. "What we've agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilize the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles."